enDaily Analysis 31/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index fell below 104 on Monday, marking its third consecutive decline amid growing concerns about the economic impact of new tariffs.
Gold hits all-time high on inflation and trade war fears
In a further escalation of concerns about a global trade war, Trump said on Sunday he was “furious” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he felt Moscow was obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump said on Friday he is open to making agreements with countries seeking to avoid US tariffs, but those deals will have to be negotiated after his administration announces reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 17% this year.
US consumer spending rebounded less than expected in February, while a measure of core prices rose by the most in 13 months.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Friday’s inflation data confirms her declining confidence in her core forecast that two interest rate cuts this year are “reasonable.”
Meanwhile, Trump threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not reach an agreement with Washington on its nuclear program.
Oil declines after OPEC+ production increases and Trump’s tariffs, with Brent crude trading at $72.00 and WTI at $68.00.
The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is scheduled to begin gradually increasing production in April, with reports indicating that the group is likely to continue increasing production in May.
Moreover, President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, have exacerbated fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce energy demand.
Meanwhile, Trump’s recent threats against Russia and Iran have failed to raise oil prices.
Trump said on Sunday he might impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he felt Moscow was obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
He also warned of additional tariffs and military strikes on Iran if Tehran fails to reach an agreement with the United States on its nuclear program.
Bitcoin price began a new decline below $85,000. Bitcoin is now stabilizing and may struggle to recover above $83,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3109.46
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3113.75, targeting 3122.78 and 3130.95.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3100.88, targeting 3093.87 and then 3086.73.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.80 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $69.11, targeting $69.47 and then $69.82.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $68.56 level, targeting $68.20 and then $67.77.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes) Current price:
1.08348 Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.08497, targeting 1.08676 and then 1.08883
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.08245, targeting 1.08071 and then 1.07869.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29576
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.29719, targeting 1.29895 and then 1.30094.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29427, targeting 1.29229 and then 1.29039.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19193
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19139, targeting 19034 and then 18926.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 19,296, targeting 19,415 and then 19,523.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March) 11:00
-From Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March) 11:00
-From Germany German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March) 15:00
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell below 104 on Monday, marking its third consecutive decline amid growing concerns about the economic impact of new tariffs.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump confirmed his plans to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on all countries this week and urged his advisors to take a more aggressive stance on trade policy.
Markets are increasingly concerned that these measures could trigger retaliation from major trading partners, reignite inflation, and slow economic growth.
Investors are also looking ahead to Friday’s monthly jobs report, which could provide insight into the strength of the labor market and influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The US dollar saw its sharpest losses against the safe-haven yen and also fell significantly against the euro and the British pound.
Gold rose to an all-time high on Monday, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid concerns that US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could fuel inflation and a global trade war.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell to around $68.9 a barrel on Monday, weighed down by an impending OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the impact of US tariffs.
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