enDaily Analysis 31/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held above 108 on Friday after rising for three straight sessions, as President Donald Trump reaffirmed his plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, while a 10% tariff on China remains under consideration.
Gold hits all-time high as Trump tariff fears mount
-Negative inflation surprise could boost gold further-
Silver, platinum set for weekly gains
-US CPI data is due at 16:30 Mecca time on Friday. US
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, reiterating his warning to the two countries.
“Repeated tariff threats have fueled safe-haven flows into gold… Any negative surprise in the inflation reading could signal greater policy flexibility from the Fed, which could accelerate rate cut expectations and provide further support to gold,” said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.
The US personal consumption expenditure report for December is due at 1330 GMT, looking for more clues on the path of interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that inflation and jobs data will determine when to ease monetary policy further.
Gold is considered a safe investment during geopolitical turmoil and thrives in a low interest rate environment.
“We confirm that gold remains our highest trading recommendation across commodities, driven by structural factors (central bank buying) and cyclical factors (ETF buying),” Goldman Sachs said.
Amid concerns over US tariff plans, gold deliveries to COMEX-approved warehouses (GC-STX-COMEX) rose to their highest levels since July 2022.
Gold could make further gains if tariff threats turn from a bargaining concept into an economic reality, said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, adding that prices could move north above $2,800 levels.
Oil prices rise amid US tariff threats but still headed for weekly loss, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and WTI at $72.00.
-US President Trump expects to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico this week, “may or may not exempt” oil imports
Russian Sanctions Weaken Supply Prospects
OPEC+ to discuss US production plans on February 3
Fed keeps interest rates unchanged
Brent crude is expected to fall 1.3% during the week, while West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to fall 1.69%.
However, Brent crude is expected to rise 3.8% in January, its best month since June, while WTI crude is expected to rise 2.3%.
“Crude oil prices fell this week on growing concerns surrounding Trump’s tariffs, which are expected to hamper global economic growth,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova.
ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said investors were considering the possibility of the US imposing tariffs alongside a series of executive orders and policy announcements.
Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs starting Saturday on Canadian and Mexican exports to the United States if those countries do not stop fentanyl shipments across the U.S. border.
It is not yet clear whether the tariffs will include crude oil. Trump said on Thursday he would decide soon whether to exempt Canadian and Mexican oil imports from the tariffs.
In 2023, the most recent full year for data, Canada exported 3.9 million barrels per day of crude oil to the United States, out of 6.5 million barrels per day of total imports, while Mexico exported 733,000 barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.
-Bitcoin price started a fresh bullish move above the $103,200 level. Bitcoin is now correcting the gains and may revisit the support area at $102,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2798.15
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2802.25, targeting 2808.68 and 2815.81
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2790.42. Target price 2784.42 and then 2776.59
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $72.65 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $72.52 level, targeting $72.00 and then $71.42.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $73.20, targeting $73.67 and then $74.23.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04030
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04156, targeting 1.04343 and then 1.04568.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.03932, targeting 1.03722 and then 1.03559.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24341
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.24164, targeting the price of 1.23923 and then 1.23701
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24464, targeting 1.24704 and then 1.24991.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21792
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21675, targeting a price of 21550 and then 21443
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21832 with a target price of 21935 then 22053
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
China – Chinese New Year
– From Germany German CPI (MoM) (January) 16:00
-From USA Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (December) 16:30
-From USA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (December) 16:30
-From Canada General Government Budget (YoY) (November) 19:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above 108 on Friday after rising for three straight sessions, as President Donald Trump reaffirmed his plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, while a 10% tariff on China remains under consideration.
Markets are now awaiting specific announcements on these measures to provide further clarity.
Traders are also looking ahead to the personal consumption expenditures price index report later today, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected, on Wednesday, signaling that it is waiting for further progress on inflation while acknowledging the strength of the economy.
Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, slightly below expectations of 2.6% but still reflecting strong economic growth, driven by resilient consumer spending.
The dollar is set for weekly gains against most major currencies but is expected to weaken against the yen amid hawkish expectations for Japanese interest rates.
Gold prices hit a record high on Friday, heading for their best month since March 2024, as investors flocked to the yellow metal as a safe haven due to growing concerns over U.S. tariffs, while awaiting a key inflation report due later in the day for further guidance.
Oil prices rose on Friday as markets weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude oil exporters to the United States, which could take effect this week.
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