Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• Demand for gold in India is expected to rise in 2024 despite a weak March quarter from the World Gold Council.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak today.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 166 basis points in 2024, up from about 130 basis points a week ago.
• The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is ongoing for the second day.
• Economic uncertainty and US interest rate cuts could push gold prices to record highs in 2024.
• Oil prices fell due to weak Chinese economic data, but they are on track to achieve their first monthly gain since September.
• China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) showed slight improvement in March.
• Inflation in Australia slowed at a faster rate than expected in March.
• The S&P 500 stock index hit a new all-time high of 4,927 as major technology companies prepare to report earnings.
• SoFi Technologies shares jumped 20% after reporting its first-ever quarterly profit of $47.9 million.
• The price of bitcoin attempted to make a new upward move above the $42,500 resistance level on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency showed bullish signs and could climb further above the $43,800 resistance level.

 

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2033.99 The first scenario: Buying gold at a fraction and holding above 2039.64, with a target price of 2044.70 and 2051.64 Alternative scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2031.40, with a price targeting of 2024.96 and then 2017.60

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.39 per barrel. First scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $77.86, targeting a price of $78.33, then 78.89. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.18, targeting a price of $76.66, then 76.07.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08184 First scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08092, targeting a price of 1.07932 then 1.07720 Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08320, targeting a price of 1.08504 then 1.08729

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

---

 

GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26745 The first scenario: Selling the pound for dollars at a fraction and holding steady below the level of 1.26645, targeting a price of 1.26447 then 1.26223 Alternative scenario: Buying a pound for dollars at a fraction and holding at a close above 1.26981, targeting a price of 1.27267 then 1.27488

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17451 The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17476, targeting a price of 17515 then 17561 Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17417 targeting a price of 17375 then 17331

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From Germany CPI (monthly) and annual (January) 9:30
• From the United States of America, change in non-farm private sector jobs issued by ADP (January) 16:15
• From the United States of America US crude oil inventory 18:30
• From the United States of America, Federal Open Market Committee report, 22:00
• From the United States of America, the interest decision issued by the US Federal Reserve at 22:00
• From the United States of America Federal Reserve press conference 22:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index rose above 103.5 on Wednesday, approaching its highest level in seven weeks as investors prepared for the first monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve this year.
• The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but the focus will be on any hints about the timing and pace of rate cuts this year.
• The JOLTS report released on Tuesday showed an unexpected rise in job openings to 9 million while CB consumer confidence reached its highest level since the end of 2021, further weighing on sentiment around rate cuts.
• Markets now see a less than 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% seen at the start of the year, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

• The US currency strengthened across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity seen against the Australian dollar amid a surprisingly weak reading of Australian inflation.
• The World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday that gold demand in India is expected to fall in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower jewelry sales, but annual demand is expected to rise as consumers adjust to higher prices.
• Oil prices fell on Wednesday as weak economic data in China, the world’s largest crude importer, weighed on demand sentiment, but prices are on track to achieve their first monthly gain since September as the scope of conflicts in the Middle East widens, raising concerns about supply.