Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is poised for a sharp monthly decline, having lost nearly 4% this month.
• Gold is holding its ground ahead of hints on US inflation. Gold and silver are on track for back-to-back monthly gains.
• The US economy grew at its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022.
• The US personal consumption expenditures data is due to be released today.
• Oil is stable as the market looks to an OPEC+ meeting and weak demand indicators weigh. Brent crude is trading at $83.24 and West Texas Intermediate is trading at $78.33.
• Bitcoin failed to break through the $38,500 resistance zone again. BTC is holding above the 100-hour simple moving average and may try to rally again.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,044.72

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,047.76, targeting a price of $2,052.73 and then $2,059.67.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,039.44, targeting a price of $2,032.99 and then $2,025.64.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $78.36 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $78.51, targeting a price of $78.96 and then $79.62.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $78.09, targeting a price of $77.68 and then $77.19.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09773

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09615, targeting a price of $1.09455 and then $1.09242.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09842, targeting a price of $1.10027 and then $1.10251.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27056

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26839, targeting a price of $1.26641 and then $1.26417.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.27175, targeting a price of $1.27461 and then $1.27682.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,064

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,033, targeting a price of $15,979 and then $15,915.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,113, targeting a price of $16,175 and then $16,238.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Retail Sales Index at 10:00
• Germany: Unemployment Rate at 11:55
• Eurozone: Unemployment Rate at 12:00
• Eurozone: Annual Inflation Rate at 13:00
• Canada: GDP at 16:30
• US: Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index at 16:30
• US: Initial Jobless Claims at 16:30
• US: Personal Income and Outlays at 16:30 

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 102.8 on Thursday and is on track to lose nearly 4% this month, as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates and could start cutting them next year.
• Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that current monetary settings are sufficiently tight and signaled the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans pointed to significant progress on inflation.
• Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that talk of rate cuts is premature and the Fed should not rule out raising rates again off the table.
• On the data front, the second release showed that the US economy expanded by 5.2% in the third quarter, up from 4.9% in the preliminary estimate.
• Investors are now looking to the key personal consumption expenditures inflation report on Thursday for further guidance.
• Gold price held in a tight range on Thursday, hovering near their highest level in nearly seven months, as investors await the key inflation reading to gauge whether US rate cuts will come sooner than expected.
• Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of expected production cuts from OPEC+ and as weaker Chinese factory data highlighted the expected slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.