enDaily Analysis 30/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 104.3 on Wednesday as investors braced for crucial economic indicators that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
Gold hits new record amid safe-haven demand
-The JOLTS report revealed that job openings in the United States fell to their lowest level since 2021, in contrast to September data that indicated resilience, which dampened expectations of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
However, markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the remaining Fed meetings this year.
-Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
Investors are now looking ahead to key data releases this week, including personal consumption expenditures inflation, preliminary estimates of third-quarter GDP, and payrolls numbers, for more clarity on the Fed’s interest rate path.
Meanwhile, markets continue to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the close US presidential election has increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Gold rises, focus on US economic data
Gold prices rose in early Asian trade as they continued to hit new record highs. Investors are focusing on crucial U.S. economic data including third-quarter GDP estimates due later.
He adds that stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance and lead to fewer and fewer rate cuts than markets currently expect.
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates, with higher rates dampening demand for non-interest-bearing bullion. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,778.13 an ounce.
Stocks rise as focus turns to major U.S. earnings, higher U.S. yields
Oil prices rise, focus on OPEC and demand concerns, Brent crude trades at $75.00 and WTI at $67.00
-The American Petroleum Institute data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, in contrast to expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels.
However, the bearish bias remains as focus shifts from the Middle East war-induced oil price slide to weak fundamentals, including lower Chinese demand and ample supplies, while traders anticipate OPEC+ production plans in December.
Markets are also awaiting China’s legislative meeting for possible new stimulus measures to boost demand from the largest importer.
-In addition, traders are closely watching US growth and employment data for insights on monetary policy ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision and the US elections.
-Bitcoin price is rising above the $72,000 area. Bitcoin price is up more than 5% and could soon target a new all-time high above $73,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2779.92
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2785.07, targeting 2791.50 and 2798.63
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2773.69, targeting 2767.24 and then 2759.41
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.44 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $67.56 level, targeting $68.03 and then $68.59.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $66.88 levels, targeting $66.36 and then $65.77
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08159
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.08043, targeting 1.07883 and then 1.07670.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08270, targeting 1.08455 and then 1.08679.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29975
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.29817 level, targeting the price of 1.29577 and then 1.29355
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30118 with a target price of 1.30358 then 1.30645
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20510
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20721, targeting 20806 then 20909
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20649 with a target price of 20525 then 20417
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-SNB Press Conference 12:30
-From Europe GDP (YoY) (Q3) 13:00
-From USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (October) 15:15
-From USA GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 15:30
-US Crude Oil Inventories 17:30
-From Canada Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada 23:15
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 104.3 on Wednesday as investors braced for crucial economic indicators that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
The preliminary reading of third-quarter GDP is due later today, followed by the personal spending price index report on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
The latest data from the Jolts report showed job opportunities falling to their lowest levels since January 2021, along with an increase in layoffs.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve’s consumer confidence index rose sharply, recording its largest increase since March 2021.
Despite the mixed signals, the dollar remained near its highest levels in three months, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious approach in its easing strategy.
Moreover, speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s possible victory in the November 5 election provided further support to the currency, as his policies on tariffs, taxes and immigration are seen as inflationary.
Gold rose to nearly $2,780 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting a fresh record high as investors digested recent labor data and assessed geopolitical risks ahead of the U.S. election.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose to around $67.5 a barrel on Wednesday after two straight declines, supported by an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories.
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