Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index rose 0.03% to 106.63, as investors assessed what the latest resilient US economic data would mean for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
• Spot gold prices surpassed the psychological level of $2,000 on Friday, as markets prepare for this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which ends on Wednesday.
• Meta shares fell 3% despite 164% earnings growth. Weaker future advertising revenue expectations.
• Microsoft shares rose 4% as quarterly revenue reached $56.5 billion, beating estimates.
• Amazon shares jumped 5.4% as earnings doubled to $10 billion, thanks to cloud-based AI sales.
• Oil prices fall amid cautious start to Israeli attack. Oil retreats as caution over data-heavy week offsets boost from Middle East warBrent crude is trading at $88.45 and West Texas Intermediate at $84.35.
• Bitcoin price hovers near $35,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,004.53

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,007.85, targeting a price of $2,012.91 and then $2,019.85.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,999.62, targeting a price of $1,993.17 and then $1,985.93.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $84.30 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $84.71, targeting a price of $85.27 and then $85.77.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.10, targeting a price of $83.52 and then $82.99.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05649

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05518, targeting a price of $1.05358 and then $1.05167.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05748, targeting a price of $1.05935 and then $1.06145.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21152

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.20965, targeting a price of $1.20768 and then $1.20544.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21302, targeting a price of $1.21587 and then $1.21809.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,342

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14285, targeting a price of $14,231 and then $14,159.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,366, targeting a price of $14427 and then $14,490.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• There are no economic data releases today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• Data released on Friday showed that the US consumer spending rose in September, as households boosted their purchases of cars and travel, keeping spending on a higher growth trajectory as the fourth quarter approaches.
• While expectations are that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged when it announces its policy decision later this week, markets are pricing in a roughly 19% chance of a rate hike in December.
• Christian Sherman, US economist at DWS, said: “While the Fed will certainly not provide forward guidance in the classical sense at the next meeting, it has already provided some useful information about its interpretation of recent developments: a more balanced risk view.”
• Treasury yields have retreated from recent highs but have remained elevated, with the benchmark 10-year note trading at 5.02% last week, its highest yield since 2007. They have since retreated back towards 4.80% and have seen strong price action since then.
• The sharp rise in yields on US government debt has helped to support the US dollar. In addition, safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold have risen in value with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which has helped to undermine growth and risk-oriented assets.
• Oil prices fell by $1 a barrel on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and Chinese manufacturing data later this week, offsetting support from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Oil futures fell in Asian trading. With a cautious start to the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza, the war effect on oil prices continued to decline, pushing Brent crude back below $90 a barrel, Saxo Markets analysts said in a report. However, markets remain on edge, as the United States sees that the regional conflict between Israel and Hamas has an increasing risk of escalating.