Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose above 105.8 on Tuesday after retreating in the previous session. Investors shifted their focus to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.

Gold prices fell as US companies declined ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Bullion has risen more than 4% this month. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets from April 30 to May 1. Silver and platinum are on track for monthly gains.

“We’re starting to see gold prices come back towards those fundamentals,” said analyst Danni Romero, citing a stronger dollar and higher yields. The metal has gained more than 4% so far this month, supported by central bank buying and safe-haven flows.

Among key events this week are the Fed meeting and non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady. “If the Fed could reprice rate cuts, that would be supportive of gold,” said Rhoda from Capital.com.

Higher rates reduce the attractiveness of holding gold.

The Chinese yuan slipped from a one-month high and is on track for its fourth monthly decline. Chinese financial markets will be closed for an extended holiday starting Wednesday.

Europe faces a data-heavy session, led by eurozone inflation figures for April.

The yen held its gains after suspected intervention. Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as investors awaited economic data, corporate earnings and the Fed meeting. Oil retreated as investors eyed Israel-Gaza truce talks and the Fed policy review.

“Talks for a potential ceasefire unwound the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices,” said market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. “Keeping interest rates higher could lead to further gains in the US dollar, which also puts downside risks to oil demand expectations.”

Bitcoin found support at $61,800 and rebounded to $64,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2319.91

The first scenario: Buying gold at a fraction and holding above 2327.96, with a target price of 2334.39 and 2341.28

 Alternative scenario: Selling gold at a break and holding below 2316.58, with a price targeting of 2310.13 and then 2303.98

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $82.13 per barrel.

First scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $82.52, targeting a price of $82.99, then 83.55. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $81.84, targeting a price of $81.32, then 80.73.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06930

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.07091, targeting a price of 1.07276, then 1.07500. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.06864, targeting a price of 1.06704, then 1.06491.

Comment: Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25268

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.25521, targeting a price of 1.25807 then 1.26028. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.25185, targeting a price of 1.25988 then 1.25764.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17902

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17965, targeting the price of 18035 then 18131. The alternative scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17841 with a price of 17780 then 17710.

Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Germany: GDP (Q1) – 11:00 CEST
• Europe: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (April) – 12:00 CEST
• Europe: GDP (Q1) – 12:00 CEST

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 105.8 on Tuesday as investors shifted their focus to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, supported by strong US economic data and hawkish comments from policymakers. Friday’s PCE report showed inflation pressures remain elevated, with surprises on the upside for both headline and core measures.

Investors are also eyeing nonfarm payrolls data for April on Friday to gauge the strength of the US labor market.

Meanwhile, the dollar index lost 0.4% on Monday due to pressure from a sharp rise in the yen, driven by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. However, the Japanese government hasn’t confirmed intervention and reiterated its readiness to act on currency issues around the clock.

Gold prices are on track for their third straight monthly gain despite slipping on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened ahead of the Fed meeting starting later today.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo eased concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, worries about US interest rate expectations weighed on the market.