enDaily Analysis 30/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady at 107.8 on Thursday after a volatile session the day before as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled that inflation remains “moderately elevated.” The Fed also said economic growth and the labor market were healthy but omitted previous language suggesting “progress” on inflation.
-US Personal Consumption Expenditure Report due Friday
London gold market queues up to borrow gold from central bank
-Powell says no rush to cut rates again
Investors are now awaiting the December PCE price index report, due out on Friday, to gauge the path of inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell said there would be no rush to cut them again until inflation and jobs data made it appropriate.
Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates weaken the appeal of non-yielding gold.
“Investment demand needs to increase for gold prices to keep moving towards $2,900 or $3,000,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
“It will all depend on policy changes, inflation, geopolitical risks, and how all of that evolves,” Kumari said.
Earlier this week, the White House said Trump still planned to impose significant tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, and was “very much considering” imposing some tariffs on China.
-Participants in the London bullion market are racing to borrow gold from central banks, after a sharp increase in gold deliveries to the United States amid concerns about tariffs.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is almost certain to cut interest rates later today, likely leaving the door open to further monetary policy easing.
Oil fluctuates as markets await clarification on Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with Brent trading at $75.00 and WTI at $72.00.
Oil prices little changed as investors await Trump’s move on Mexico, Canada tariffs
-U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week.
OPEC+ ministerial meeting on February 3 is the focus
White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt told reporters Tuesday that Trump still plans to follow through on his promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday.
Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said Wednesday that Canada and Mexico could avoid tariffs if they moved quickly to close their borders to fentanyl, while pledging to slow China’s advances in artificial intelligence.
On the demand side, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, roughly in line with analysts’ estimates for a 3.19 million-barrel increase, as winter storms that swept the country last week weighed on demand.
On the supply side, traders and Reuters calculations said crude oil exports from Russia’s western ports in February were expected to fall by 8% compared to the January plan as Moscow ramps up refining, after recent US sanctions squeezed crude exports.
Investors are also looking ahead to a ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, scheduled for February 3.
Kazakhstan said on Wednesday that the OPEC+ group of major oil producers will discuss Trump’s efforts to increase U.S. oil output and take a common position on the issue. Russia is also a member of the OPEC+ group.
Trump has publicly called on OPEC and its leading member Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, saying doing so would end the conflict in Ukraine. He has also laid out an agenda to boost U.S. oil and gas production, already the world’s largest.
-Bitcoin price started a fresh bullish move above the $102,000 level. Bitcoin price is rising and may gain momentum to move above the $105,000 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2768.02
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2769.98, targeting 2776.41 and 2783.54
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2758.60. Target price 2752.15 and then 2744.32
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $72.27 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $71.97 level, targeting $71.44 and then $70.86.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $72.65, targeting $73.11 and then $73.68
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04182
Scenario 1: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04292, targeting 1.04477 and then 1.04701.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04160, targeting 1.03905 and then 1.03692.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24432
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.24259 level, targeting the price of 1.24019 and then 1.23797
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24560, targeting 1.24800 and then 1.25087
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21656
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21562, targeting a price of 21425 and then 21318
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21706 with a target price of 21810 then 21928
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-China – Chinese New Year
-From Europe GDP (YoY) (Q4) 13:00
-From Europe Borrowing Rate (January) 16:15
-From Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (January) 16:15
-From USA GDP (Q4) 16:30
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30
-From Europe ECB Press Conference 16:45
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady at 107.8 on Thursday after a volatile session the previous day as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and noted that inflation remains “moderately elevated.” The Fed also said economic growth and the labor market are healthy but omitted previous language indicating “progress” on inflation.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in the press conference following the meeting that progress was still being made, suggesting that there may still be room for future rate cuts.
Markets still expect two 25 basis point rate cuts later this year.
As market tensions escalated, U.S. government officials sent mixed signals about whether the Trump administration would go ahead with tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as it has previously threatened.
Traders are now focused on the upcoming PCE price index report on Friday, as well as the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision later today.
Gold traded in a relatively tight price range on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and a key inflation report for clues on monetary policy.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets braced for threatened tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the United States’ biggest crude oil suppliers, and awaited a meeting of OPEC+ producers.
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