Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar holds losses in thin holiday trade

The dollar index held its recent lows around 106.1 on Thursday, with trading volumes low due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The index fell 0.8% on Wednesday after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation data came in in line with expectations, suggesting little change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

Gold falls below $2630

-PCE and core PCE prices showed that the advance of inflation has stalled, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on further rate cuts.

Additional data indicated that the economy remains strong, following the release of the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, while employment data indicated continued flexibility in the labor market, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling below expectations.

This data further limits the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates next year.

On the geopolitical front, traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. While the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, uncertainty remains following strong comments from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

-Gold is down; price likely to be volatile in the near term

Gold prices fell in early Asian trade. The price had rebounded slightly overnight on a weaker U.S. dollar but pared gains after U.S. data showed inflation was stalling.

The price of the precious metal may be volatile in the short term, and sees strong support at around $2,550 per ounce.

-Oil falls as US gasoline stocks rise; eyes on OPEC+ meeting at weekend; Brent trades at $72.00, WTI at $68.00

Trading is expected to be light due to the US Thanksgiving holiday which begins on Thursday.

Oil is likely to hold onto its downward momentum in the near term as supply disruption risks in the Middle East fade and as a result of higher-than-expected U.S. gasoline inventories, said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 22, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, defying expectations for a small draw in fuel inventories ahead of record holiday travel.

Slowing fuel demand growth in the biggest consumers, the United States and China, has weighed heavily on oil prices this year, although supply cuts by OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, have limited losses.

OPEC+ is due to meet on Sunday. Two sources from the producer group told Reuters on Tuesday that members were discussing a further delay to a planned oil output increase that was due to start in January.

Suvro Sarkar, head of energy sector at DBS Bank, said further delays, as many in the market expected, were mostly a factor in oil prices already.

-Bitcoin price recovers above $94,000. Bitcoin is trying to consolidate and is targeting a new high above $97,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2660.60

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2657.02, targeting 2650.58 and then 2642.74

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2668.41 with a target price of 3674.84 and 2681.97

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $68.35 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $68.24 level, targeting $67.71 and then $67.13.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $68.91, targeting $69.38 and then $69.95

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.05858

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05754, targeting 1.05608 and then 1.05381.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05981, targeting 1.06166 and then 1.06390.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27327

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.27225 level, targeting the price of 1.26985 and then 1.26763

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27526, targeting 1.27766 and then 1.28053.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20876

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20930 with a target price of 21033 then 21151

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20773 with a target price of 20648 then 20541

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-USA – Thanksgiving – Closing begins at 13:00
-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (November) 13:00
-From Canada Government Budget (YoY) (September) 19:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 106 on Friday, heading for a loss of about 1.5% for the week, marking its first weekly decline in nine weeks.

The initial pullback was driven by the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary, which gave markets a sense of stability and eased concerns about radical policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration.

The decline gained momentum on Wednesday after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation data came in in line with expectations, suggesting little change in the Federal Reserve’s stance on cutting interest rates.

Markets now price in a 25 basis point rate cut in December at 66.5%, up from 55.9% a week ago.

Despite its decline this week, the dollar index is still poised to rise about 2% in November, as Trump’s decisive election victory fuels bets on fiscal expansion, higher tariffs and tighter borders — policies that could be inflationary.

Gold rose to around $2,660 an ounce on Friday, gaining for a fourth straight session, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising geopolitical tensions.

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after possible renewed supply risks as Israel and Hezbollah traded accusations of violating a ceasefire, and as an OPEC+ meeting was postponed, leaving investors waiting for a decision on its output policy.