Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady around 104.3 on Tuesday after sharp swings in the previous session, as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Gold rises again to record levels

Key focus points include personal consumption expenditures inflation, advance estimates of third-quarter GDP, and payrolls figures, ahead of the presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week.

-Previous data showed underlying economic resilience and a temporary softening in the labor market, likely due to the impact of two hurricanes on job growth, which reinforced expectations for a modest rate cut.

Markets have priced in a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at 98%.

Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.

Elsewhere, gold consumption in China fell more than 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year.

-Gold rises; may remain rangebound ahead of key economic data

Gold prices rose in early Asian trade. Prices may trade in a narrow range ahead of key U.S. economic data.

The precious metal may remain weighed down by geopolitical concerns and the global economic situation that is affecting demand. However,

-The decline in the US dollar and the decline in markets may encourage some traders to take long-term positions. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,744.10 an ounce.

Asian stocks mixed, dollar down ahead of corporate earnings, jobs data

Oil prices did not witness any significant change despite US support for plans to increase reserves, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.

“While the outlook for the situation in the Middle East remains worrisome, the market is expecting a temporary lull in retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

He said that “the US plan to refill the strategic reserve provided some support to the market,” but he expected a downward trend in the future as the peak winter demand season for kerosene approaches in the northern hemisphere while demand in China remained slow.

The United States said on Monday it is seeking up to 3 million barrels of oil for the strategic reserve for delivery through May next year, a purchase that would leave the government with little money to buy more until lawmakers approve more funds.

On Saturday, dozens of Israeli aircraft carried out three waves of strikes against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, in the latest exchange of fire between the Middle East rivals.

The attacks were more aimed at military targets, which eased fears that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure.

“A targeted response from Israel leaves the door open for de-escalation, which would allow fundamentals to be the dominant market driver again,” analysts at ING Economics said in a report, adding that fundamentals are expected to be bearish through 2025.

However, tensions in the Middle East remain high, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei saying on Monday that Iran “will use all available tools” to respond to the Israeli attack over the weekend.

-Bitcoin price is rising above the $70k area. Bitcoin price is up more than 5% and may soon target a move above the $72k resistance area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2751.08

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2758.55, targeting 2764.98 and 2772.11

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2747.16, targeting 2740.72 and then 2732.88

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $67.16 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $67.56 level, targeting $68.03 and then $68.59.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $66.88 levels, targeting $66.36 and then $65.77

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08079
Scenario 1: Sell the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.07940 with a target price of 1.07781 then 1.07568
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking and consolidating by closing a candle above 1.08168 with a target price of 1.08352 then 1.08577
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29638

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.29480 level, targeting the price of 1.29240 and then 1.29018

Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.29781 with a target price of 1.30021 then 1.30308

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20510

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20552, targeting 20658 then 20776

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20398 with target price 20273 then 20166

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA CB Consumer Confidence Index (October) 17:00
-From USA Job Openings (JOLTS) (September) 17:00
-From Canada Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada 22:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 104.3 on Tuesday after sharp swings in the previous session, as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Markets will be evaluating job openings and labor turnover data on Tuesday to gauge the strength of the labor market.

Later in the week, key data such as preliminary estimates of GDP growth, personal consumption expenditures inflation, and nonfarm payrolls are due.

However, the dollar remained trading near three-month highs as signs of strength in the U.S. economy tempered expectations of an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Markets expect the central bank to deliver a modest cut of around 25 basis points in November after starting the easing cycle with a massive cut of around 50 basis points in September.

The dollar has also been boosted by bets on a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election on November 5, as his policies on tariffs, taxes and immigration are seen as inflationary.

Gold rose above $2,750 an ounce on Tuesday, returning to record highs as markets focused on a slew of U.S. economic data this week.

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as a U.S. plan to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve provided some support but broader concerns about weak future demand growth weighed.