Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index dipped below 106 on Monday as investors refrained from making big bets before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady amid strong US economic data and hawkish rhetoric from policymakers.
• Gold prices edged lower as hopes for an early Fed rate cut diminished, weakening the metal’s appeal.
• One analyst noted that concerns about Chinese yuan depreciation could bolster local gold buying.
• The US nonfarm payrolls report is due out on Friday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets from April 30 to May 1.
• An analyst believes gold could benefit from any potential pullback in US macro data in the coming quarters, if it holds within the $2200 to $2350 range.
• Investors are currently pricing in one rate cut this year, expecting it to occur in November, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
• A seasonal dip in regional demand is likely in mid-2024, but the structurally stronger consumption trend across retail and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) supports a gold price floor. This underpins the fundamental case at $3000/oz gold over the next 12-15 months, according to another analyst. Concerns about Chinese yuan depreciation could bolster local gold buying.
• The Chinese yuan is faltering near a 5-month low after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) fixed the weakest yuan midpoint since May 2020.
• The yen jumped, Asian stocks rose, and US bond yields edged lower as investors braced for a possible Fed rate hike this year.
• Oil prices fell about 1% on Monday due to ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas and US inflation concerns.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2330.63

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2338.21, with a target price of 2344.64 and 2351.53. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2326.83, with a price target of 2320.38 and then 2313.33.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $82.73 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $83.22, targeting a price of $83.69, then 84.25. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $82.54, targeting a price of $82.02, then 81.43.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07192

The first scenario: Buying the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07353, targeting a price of 1.07538, then 1.07763. Alternative scenario: Selling the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07126, targeting a price of 1.06966, then 1.06753.

Comment: Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25296

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.25521, targeting a price of 1.25807 then 1.26028. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.25185, targeting a price of 1.25988 then 1.25764.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17903

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17965, targeting the price of 18035 then 18131. The alternative scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17841 with a price of 17780 then 17710.

Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Japan: Holiday – Showa Day

• Germany: Consumer Price Index (MoM) (April) 3:00 PM CEST

• Canada: Federal Budget (Annual) (February) 6:00 PM EDT

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The stock index jumped half a percent on Friday after the latest US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation pressures remained elevated, with upside surprises in both the headline and core measures.

Meanwhile, preliminary data showed the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, the slowest pace in two years and well below expectations of 2.5%.

Investors are also looking ahead to nonfarm payrolls data for April, due out on Friday, for clues about the strength of the US labor market.

The dollar weakened against most major currencies but rose to its highest level in 34 years against the yen as markets continue to bet against the Bank of Japan raising interest rates.

Gold prices retreated on Monday as hopes for an early Fed rate cut this year diminished. Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve meeting and US nonfarm payrolls data for further clarity on monetary policy.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday, giving up some of their gains from Friday as peace talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo eased concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, US inflation data reduced the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts.