Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Monday, hovering near its highest levels in more than six weeks as investors eye the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week.
• Gold gains as a safe haven as fears mount in the Middle East
• The Fed’s Powell will speak on Wednesday
• The depth of the cuts in 2024 is expected to reach 166 basis points, compared to about 130 basis points a week ago.
• Oil jumps 1% after the Houthis attack on a fuel tanker in the Red Sea and rises with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at levels of $83.00, as well as West Texas crude at levels of $78.00.
• Evergrande shares collapse by 21% after a liquidation court order in Hong Kong
• Bitcoin price is recovering above the $42,000 resistance level. BTC must clear $42,800 and $43,500 to start increasing towards the $45,000 resistance level.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2027.42

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2030.44, targeting the price of 2035.50 and 2042.44.

Alternative scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2022.21, with a target price of 2015.76 and then 2008.40.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.17 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.63, targeting a price of $79.10, then 79.66. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.95, targeting a price of $77.43, then 76.85.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests a rise.

EURUSD

General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08447
The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08274, targeting a price of 1.08114, then 1.07901.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.08501, targeting the price of 1.08686 then 1.08910.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

GBPUSD

Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26955
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the 1.26860 level, targeting the price of 1.26662 then 1.26438.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold steady by closing above 1.27195, targeting the price of 1.27481 then 1.27703

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

NAS100

Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1545
The first scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 17561, targeting the price of 17600 then 17646.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 17501, targeting the price of 17460 then 17416.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• There are no important economic events today

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Monday, hovering near its highest levels in more than six weeks as investors eye the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week.
• The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, while traders will focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting for clues about the possible start of an easing cycle.
• Stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also dampened expectations for an interest rate cut in March.
• Markets now see a 48% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down significantly from the 86% chance at the end of December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
• Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed that annual core personal consumption expenditures inflation in the US slowed more than expected last month and personal spending beat expectations, adding to the evidence of a soft landing scenario.
• Gold prices rose on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East increased the appeal of bullion as a safe haven, while moves were limited as traders waited for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments this week for signals on the path of interest rates.
• Oil prices rose on Monday after a drone attack on US forces in Jordan raised concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East as Houthi rebels step up attacks on ships in the Red Sea, hitting a fuel tanker operated by Trafigura.
• The risks of the conflict widening come as Russian refined product exports are expected to decline, with several refineries being repaired in the wake of drone attacks.