Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose above 106 on Friday and is set to advance for a fourth straight week ahead of U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

Gold is heading for its third quarterly gain; Traders are awaiting US inflation data

The head of global macroeconomics at Tasteliff said: “Gold rose during the second quarter, largely due to the widening scope of monetary easing in the United States… China also bought large quantities of gold for its reserves, which helped provide support in the second quarter.”

-After adding to its gold reserves for 18 straight months, official data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed its holdings were flat in May. However, a study by the World Gold Council found that more central banks could increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

Gold rose more than 1% in the previous session after data showed that U.S. economic activity continued to slow, albeit moderately. The market currently sees a 64% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stressed on Thursday that she is not yet ready to support an interest rate cut by the central bank as high inflation pressures persist.

The US personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – is scheduled to be released at 15:30 GMT.

– Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index, said a soft set of PCE numbers is needed to keep hopes of Fed easing alive and further support gold. (FEDWATCH)

While bullion is a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Bullion prices rose by about 4% during the quarter, and the US Consumer Price Index data scheduled to be released at 15:30 Mecca time. Silver and platinum are heading for quarterly gains.

Asian stocks were on track for a fifth straight month of gains on Friday, supported by a growing view that slowing inflation in the United States could prompt the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates this year, while the yen fell lower. Level in 38 years against the dollar.

Oil rises to achieve a third weekly gain in a row, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $81.00.

Oil prices are also expected to rise by more than 6% in June and about 15% in the first half of 2024.

Tensions between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have escalated as Hezbollah has intensified its rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel in recent weeks, adding to pressure on an Israeli government already embroiled in a war with Hamas.

A broader conflict is likely to include major oil producer Iran, with Turkish President Erdogan expressing solidarity with Lebanon and urging regional support.

-Bitcoin price is holding above the $60,550 support area. Bitcoin may avoid further declines if it manages to recover above the $62,400 resistance level.

-Bitcoin price failed to recover above the $62,500 resistance area. Bitcoin is showing bearish signs and may fall back below the $60,000 support level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2326.37

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2318.04, targeting 2311.59 and 2305.36

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2329.42, targeting 2335.85 and then 2342.98

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.81 per barrel

The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $82.12, targeting a price of $82.59, then 83.15.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil at a break of $81.44, targeting $80.92 and then $80.33.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06951

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.07045, targeting a price of 1.07230, then 1.07454.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.06818, targeting 1.06658 and then 1.06445.

Comment: Trading on support and averages suggests an upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26369

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.26516, targeting the price of 1.26802, then 1.27024.

Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.26180, targeting 1.25983 and then 1.25759

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20129

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 20164, targeting the price of 20234 then 20314.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20063 price 20006 then 19955

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America, core personal consumption expenditures price index (monthly) 15:30

-From USACore Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (YoY) (May) 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 106 on Friday and is set to advance for a fourth straight week in the run-up to US personal consumption expenditures inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

The index is also expected to rise by more than 1% in June and more than 4% in the first half of 2024.

The stronger-than-expected inflation reading is likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight as it has taken a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates than other major central banks.

A Fed official also signaled a willingness to raise interest rates again if progress on inflation stalls or even reverses.
Meanwhile, the dollar came under pressure on Thursday after data showed continuing claims rose to their highest level in 2021, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market.

However, GDP growth was revised slightly to 1.4% from 1.3% in the second estimate.

Gold prices fell on Friday, but were heading for a third consecutive quarterly rise, while investors looked to US inflation data scheduled for later today for more clarity on the timeline for cutting interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $82 a barrel on Friday and were set to advance for a third straight week as escalating conflict in the Middle East overshadowed uncertainty about demand.