Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index rose around 104.4 on Thursday, hovering near a six-week high, as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official supported the currency.
• Gold steadies as traders await US data for more Fed cues
• Focus on US personal consumption expenditures data due Friday
• Fed’s Waller still sees “no rush” to cut rates
• Palladium rises over 1%
• “The Fed has signaled that they are willing to cut rates, and there are still geopolitical risk concerns in the markets around these wars, whether in Ukraine or in the Middle East, which is supporting gold,” said Howie Lee, executive director of global macroeconomics at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.
• “Gold prices have been trading in a range for most of this month, and a break above the current resistance level of $2,225 an ounce could lead to prices moving towards the $2,300 level.”
• Gold hit a record high last week after the Fed projected three rate cuts in 2024 despite recent strong inflation readings.
• Many markets were closed on Good Friday when the PCE data is due, so the full reaction is expected to be seen next week.
• Asian currencies hold steady against the US dollar ahead of the Easter holiday. The US dollar index remains strong despite overnight declines in Treasury yields,
• The yen fell near a decades-low on Thursday, though the threat of intervention from Japanese authorities kept investors wary of pushing the currency to a fresh low, while Asian stocks retreated ahead of a key US inflation reading
• Oil prices rise as investors reassess US inventory data, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and WTI at $81.00
• In the previous session, oil prices were pressured after US crude and gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week, driven by higher crude imports and slowing gasoline demand, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
• “We expect… US stocks to build less than usual in a reflection of a global oil market that is in a small deficit. This is likely to support the Brent price going forward,” said SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop in a note.
• BlackRock CEO “very bullish” on Bitcoin as ETF tops $17 billion

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2195.46

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2199.74, with a target price of 2206.17 and 2213.55. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2188.36, with a price target of 2181.91 and then 2174.56.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.45 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.98, targeting a price of $82.45, then 83.01. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $81.30, targeting a price of $80.78, then 80.20.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08230

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08068, targeting a price of 1.07908, then 1.07695. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08295, targeting a price of 1.08480, then 1.08704.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.256304

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26129, targeting a price of 1.25932 then 1.25708. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady at a close above 1.26465, targeting a price of 1.26751 then 1.26972.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18498

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18523, targeting the price of 18563 then 18609. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18464, targeting a price of 18422 then 18379.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Annual) and Quarterly (Q4): 10:00
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Quarterly) (Q4): 15:30
• Initial Jobless Claims: 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index rose around 104.4 on Thursday, hovering near a six-week high, as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official supported the currency.
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the central bank could back away from cutting interest rates amid strong inflation data.
• Markets are currently pricing in about a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, down from around 70% last week.
• Investors are now looking ahead to the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, for further guidance.
• The dollar rose across the board, but is at risk of falling against the yen as Japanese authorities have signaled their willingness to intervene in currency markets again.
• Gold prices steadied on Thursday as investors digested Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s comments on rate cuts and looked ahead to more US economic data for policy clues.
• Global oil prices rose on Thursday, recovering from two straight sessions of losses, as investors reassessed the latest US crude and gasoline inventory data and returned to buying mode.