enDaily Analysis 29/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 107.9 on Wednesday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Gold steady as investors await Fed decision, Trump tariff moves
-Analysts say gold’s record move is still in place.
-White House says Trump still expects to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico
-China markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday
Last week, prices were trading near record highs, but fell more than 1% on Monday as investors rushed to liquidate bullion to offset losses from a sharp decline in technology stocks, spurred by DeepSeek’s low-cost, low-power AI model.
“It’s always a concern when the market fails to break above previous highs, but this move is still in place,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital.com.
“Gold is in increasing demand due to the desire to hedge against deficits, debts and de-dollarization.”
Trump still plans to follow through on his promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, a White House spokesman told reporters on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve wraps up its first monetary policy meeting of the year later today. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold after easing them by 100 basis points from September to December. (FEDWATCH)
Investors will also be watching how policymakers react to Trump’s call for a rate cut.
However, Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
-Gold usually acts as a safe haven during times of uncertainty and trade wars. However, rising interest rates may reduce its appeal because it does not pay any interest.
-China, the world’s largest gold consumer, remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
-Oil prices fall on rising US inventories and Libyan output, with Brent crude trading at $77.00 and WTI at $73.00
-API shows weekly crude, gasoline stocks rise
Libya says oil loadings normal after protests
Saudi, other OPEC+ ministers meet after Trump calls for lower prices
“While markets are addressing demand-side pressures, easing supply-side tensions are weighing on oil prices,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova in Singapore.
“Markets are under pressure due to Trump’s plans to boost US oil production and are awaiting more clarity on Trump’s energy policies.”
US President Donald Trump began his term last week by issuing several executive orders to facilitate permitting for energy infrastructure and boost already high oil and gas production to record levels.
U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, while distillate stockpiles fell, market sources said Tuesday, citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute.
The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is scheduled to release its weekly data at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.
The resolution of supply concerns in Libya also contributed to selling pressure, said Chiyuki Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading in Tokyo.
Those concerns eased after Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation said on Tuesday that export activity was proceeding normally after it held talks with protesters who demanded a halt to loading at one of its main oil ports.
The White House said Tuesday that President Trump still plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday.
-Bitcoin price started a fresh bullish move above $100,000. Bitcoin is facing resistance at $103,000 and could target an upside breakout.
Bitcoin price continued its losses and tested the $97,650 area. Bitcoin is now correcting its losses and may face hurdles near the $103,000 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2760.46
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2768.43, targeting 2774.86 and 2781.99
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2757.05. Targeting 2750.60 and then 2742.77
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $73.33 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $73.28 level, targeting $72.48 and then $71.89.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $73.68, targeting $74.15 and then $74.71
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04418
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04453, targeting 1.04638 and then 1.04862.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04226, targeting 1.04066 and then 1.03853.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24583
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.24341 level, targeting the price of 1.24100 and then 1.23878
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24641, targeting 1.24881 and then 1.25168
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21659
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21549, targeting a price of 21425 and then 21318
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21706 with a target price of 21810 then 21928
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Canada, the interest rate decision issued by the Bank of Canada 17:45
US Crude Oil Inventory
– From the US FOMC Report 22:00
– From the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 22:00
– From the US Federal Reserve Press Conference 22:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 107.9 on Wednesday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Market participants will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments and the central bank’s inflation outlook for hints on the timing of any future interest rate cuts, especially after President Donald Trump called for an immediate reduction in borrowing costs.
Traders are also awaiting the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Meanwhile, the dollar gained some ground on Tuesday after Trump issued fresh tariff warnings targeting key sectors to encourage domestic production.
The February 1 deadline for the first round of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China is also approaching, as Trump previously stated.
Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as market participants awaited a U.S. interest rate decision, while President Donald Trump’s trade policies were also in focus amid fresh threats of tariffs.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, giving up some of the previous session’s gains, as rising U.S. crude inventories and easing concerns over Libyan supplies weighed on prices, although the decline was limited by potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.
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