Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose above 107.8 on Tuesday, recovering from a six-week low as President Donald Trump escalated his tariff threats.

Gold steady as traders focus on Fed

Analysts say $2,800 looks like a viable target for gold in the near term.

Analysts cut platinum, palladium price forecasts for 2025

Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but Trump could complicate the task, having said last week that he wanted the central bank to lower borrowing costs.

If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, it will be the first pause in a rate-cutting cycle that began last September.

“If (Fed Chair) Jerome Powell leaves the door a little open to a potential rate cut in the coming months, that could put pressure on Treasury yields and help gold,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

He said that the $2,800 level is a viable target for gold in the near term.

Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a low interest rate environment.

Elsewhere, data on Monday showed China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 84% in December from the previous month, falling to their lowest since April 2022.

Oil prices hover near two-week lows; weak Chinese data adds to demand concerns;
Brent trades at $78.00, WTI at $73.00

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose about 0.5% on Tuesday.

China’s manufacturing activity shrinks in January

-Weather forecast in the United States with temperatures above normal

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reported an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in January on Monday, adding to concerns about growth in global demand for crude.

“The general cautious tone in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers casting doubt on China’s oil demand outlook, could act as a downward pressure on oil prices,” said IG analyst Yip Junrong.

-China’s crude demand is also expected to be affected by recent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil trade. FGE analysts expect Shandong refineries to lose up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supplies in the near term amid a ban by the Shandong Port Group on tankers subject to U.S. sanctions.

Analysts pointed out that “at the same time, alternative crude barrels (to Russian supplies) are being sought, but they come at much higher costs.”

Several independent refineries in China have halted operations or plan to do so for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies push refiners deeper into losses.

India, the world’s third-largest importer of crude oil, is also facing disruptions to Russian oil supplies, but refiners there are using the lull in sanctions to make purchases through March, according to FGE analysts.

In the United States, weather forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures this week, which negatively affects demand for heating fuel after the bitter cold led to higher prices for natural gas and diesel in previous sessions.

Bitcoin price continued its losses and tested the $97,650 area. Bitcoin is now correcting its losses and may face hurdles near the $103,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2742.10

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2746.86, targeting 2753.11 and 2760.23

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2735.29. Target price 2728.86 and then 2721.01

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $73.21 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $72.86 level, targeting $72.33 and then $71.75.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $73.52, targeting $74.00 and then $74.57

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.04385

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04453, targeting 1.04638 and then 1.04862.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04226, targeting 1.04066 and then 1.03853.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.24487

Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.24341 level, targeting the price of 1.24100 and then 1.23878

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24639, targeting 1.24881 and then 1.25178

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21273

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21204, targeting a price of 21079 then 20972

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21361 with a target price of 21464 then 21582

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States of America CB Consumer Confidence Index (January))18:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 107.8 on Tuesday, recovering from a six-week low as President Donald Trump escalated his tariff threats.

Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals and steel, with the aim of encouraging domestic production of these goods.

Traders have become more cautious as the Feb. 1 deadline for the first round of tariffs, as previously set by the president, approaches.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with expectations that it will keep interest rates steady despite Trump’s calls for an immediate rate cut.

Investors are focusing on the central bank’s inflation forecasts for clues about when it will cut interest rates next.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies, with the biggest gains against the euro and the yen.

Gold steadied on Tuesday as investors focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting to see if President Donald Trump’s policies have an impact on the central bank’s views.

Oil prices rose but remained hovering near two-week lows on Tuesday after weak economic data from China and forecasts of warmer temperatures elsewhere dampened the demand outlook.