Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady around 101.5 on Wednesday, approaching a five-month low, as further signs of slowing inflation in the United States boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Gold prices remained steady as activity slowed, and are on track for their best year in three years.
• Gold is looking to post gains of more than 10% this year, its best performance since 2020.
• The dollar is on track for its worst performance in three years.
• Palladium is on track to post a decline of 34% on an annual basis, its worst performance in 15 years.
• Oil is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical uncertainty and supply cuts, trading at $80 a barrel for Brent crude and $75 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• Australian stocks closed higher by 0.8%.
• The Securities and Exchange Commission sets deadline for applicants for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds – 3 days left to update deposits for early January decision.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,065.04

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,070.16, targeting a price of $2,075.22 and then $2,082.16.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,061.93, targeting a price of $2,055.48 and then $2,048.13.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $75.41 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $75.69, targeting a price of $76.16 and then $76.72.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $75.01, targeting a price of $74.49 and then $73.90.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.10430

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.10265, targeting a price of $1.10105 and then $1.09892.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10492, targeting a price of $1.10677 and then $1.10901.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27321

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.27125, targeting a price of $1.26928 and then $1.26704.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27461, targeting a price of $1.27747 and then $1.27969.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $17,089

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $17,056, targeting a price of $17,014 and then $16,970.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $17,115, targeting a price of $17,154 and then $17,200.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• US: The auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds at 21:00.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 101.5 on Wednesday, approaching its lowest level in five months, as further signs of slowing inflation in the United States boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Data released on Friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, fell to 3.2% in November from 3.4% in October, below expectations of 3.3%.
• The markets now see a roughly 80% chance that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates in March, with about 150 basis points of total cuts expected next year.
• Investors look to Wednesday’s manufacturing data for further guidance.
• The dollar traded near its lowest levels in several months against other major currencies, but rose against the Chinese yuan amid expectations that the People’s Bank of China will cut its benchmark interest rates next year.
• Gold prices stabilized on Wednesday amid subdued trading in the last week of the year, but the metal is on track for its best year in three years, among expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.
• Oil prices fell in early Asian trading after rising overnight. However, oil prices are likely to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainty and OPEC+ supply cuts.
• In a research note, an analyst said that the attack by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a container ship in the Red Sea has escalated tensions in the Middle East. The analyst adds that, at the same time, OPEC+ members may cut oil production further, leading to higher oil prices.