Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar steady ahead of PCE inflation data

The dollar index held steady around 106.9 on Wednesday as investors prepared for the release of the latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Gold rises ahead of key US data

While officials expressed confidence in easing inflation and a strong labor market, the minutes also revealed a cautious approach toward further rate cuts, suggesting a preference for gradual adjustments.

Most investors still expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of about 63%, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

Traders are closely watching initial jobless claims, second GDP estimates and personal consumption spending figures due later in the day.

However, gold’s appeal remained weak due to declining geopolitical risks and a strong US dollar.

Elsewhere, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell in October from September, and were down 43% year-on-year.

Gold falls as safe-haven demand wanes

Gold prices fell in early Asian trading. Prices fell as demand for safe haven assets declined. Gold was affected by Israel’s approval of a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon.

Which could end its conflict with Hezbollah. Meanwhile, they added that concerns over Ukraine and US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs are supporting the precious metal’s prices.

-Asian stocks weak on Trump tariff worries; yen strong

Asian stocks were strong on Wednesday as investors worried about which countries could be targeted by tariffs under new U.S. President Donald Trump, a day after he vowed to impose new duties on Canada, Mexico and China.

Oil prices stabilize with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and OPEC+ policy, with Brent crude trading at $72.00 and WTI at $68.00.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will go into effect on Wednesday after the two sides agreed to a deal brokered by the United States and France.

The agreement paved the way for an end to the conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since the Gaza war erupted last year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the agreement with Lebanon and that he would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.

“Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be adhered to,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“We expect WTI crude to trade in the $65-$70 per barrel range, taking into account the weather conditions during the northern hemisphere winter, the potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States, and demand trends in China,” he said.

-As for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, sources said the group is discussing a further delay to a planned oil production increase that was due to start in January, ahead of a meeting on Dec. 1 to decide policy in early 2025.

-Bitcoin price corrects its gains below the $95,000 support level. Bitcoin was trading near the $90,000 level and is currently consolidating near $92,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2640.79

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2636.05, targeting 2629.60 and then 2621.76

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2647.43 with a target price of 2653.86 and 2660.99

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $68.62 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $68.24 level, targeting $67.71 and then $67.13.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $68.91, targeting $69.38 and then $6.

9.95 Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.04788

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.04698, targeting 1.04538 and then 1.04325.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.04925, targeting 1.05110 and then 1.05334.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25705

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.25542, targeting the price of 1.25289 and then 1.25067

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.25829, targeting 1.26070 and then 1.26357

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20966

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21013 with a target price of 21117 then 21235

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20857 with a target price of 20735 then 20625

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

 -RBA Interest Rate Decision 4:00
-US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 16:30
-US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 16:30

– US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 16:30 -US
– Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30
-US Crude Oil Inventories 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 106.9 on Wednesday as investors prepared for the release of the latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Market participants are also looking ahead to other key data releases, including initial jobless claims, the second reading of GDP, and personal income and spending figures.

Minutes from the November FOMC meeting revealed that officials were optimistic about easing inflation and a strong labor market, supporting the case for further rate cuts.

However, they indicated their preference for gradual adjustments.

Markets are currently pricing in a 63% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points next month.

The dollar initially rose on Tuesday after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, but reversed course as traders awaited more details on the proposed measures.

The dollar remained stable against most major currencies, but fell against the New Zealand dollar and the yen.

Gold rose towards $2,640 an ounce on Wednesday as investors continued to digest the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting while awaiting key U.S. data for more insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Oil prices steadied on Wednesday as markets assessed the potential impact of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of a meeting of OPEC+ producers on Sunday.