Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar held steady on Monday, as investors awaited more data. Investors are looking to key economic data this week to guide monetary policy expectations.
• Gold is above its highest level in six months, as the U.S. dollar has weakened and the bets on the Federal Reserve pausing its rate hikes have increased.
• Silver is up more than 1%.
• Investors are looking to personal consumption expenditures data on Thursday. 
• Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel ahead of an OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude is trading at $79.84 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $74.53 a barrel.
• Bitcoin is still struggling to stabilize above $38,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,011.46

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,015.36, targeting a price of $2,020.42 and then $2,027.36.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,007.13, targeting a price of $2,000.68 and then $1,993.32.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $74.99 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $75.20, targeting a price of $75.65 and then $76.30.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $74.87, targeting a price of $74.36 and then $73.88.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09474  

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09325, targeting a price of $1.09165 and then $1.08952.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09552, targeting a price of $1.09737 and then $1.09961.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26095

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25863, targeting a price of $1.25665 and then $1.25441.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.26199, targeting a price of $1.26485 and then $1.26706.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,951

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,910, targeting a price of $15,856 and then $15,784.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,989, targeting a price of $15,052 and then $16,115.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United States: New home sales at 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 103.4 on Monday after losing some of its value last week, as investors looked to key economic data to guide monetary policy expectations.
• The United States will release the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), and personal income and spending figures this week, while Federal Reserve officials will offer new insights in various appearances.
• The economic data continued to paint a mixed picture last week, with S&P Global’s preliminary PMIs showing that manufacturing fell more than expected while services rose faster.
• Meanwhile, initial claims fell more than expected but durable goods were disappointing and the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations for the next year rose for the second month.
• Markets still bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in December, while the focus is shifting to potential rate cuts next year.
• Gold prices rose to their highest level in six months on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and bets that the Fed has finished its rate-hike cycle, while the focus shifted to U.S. inflation data due out later this week.
• Oil prices fell on Monday, with Brent crude down to around $80 a barrel, as investors awaited the OPEC+ meeting later this week to reach an agreement to curb supplies through 2024.