Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index settled around 106 on Thursday after reaching a two-month high in the previous session, supported by hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official and the central bank’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

Gold prices hold near two-week low ahead of US inflation data

–
Fed’s Bowman: Inflation will fall as interest rates remain steady and the metal hit its lowest levels since June 10 on Wednesday. US personal consumption expenditures data is scheduled for release on Friday.

“The rise of the US dollar coupled with rising bond yields has left the price of gold swimming against the tide,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday reiterated her core view that “inflation will decline further as interest rates remain steady,” and that interest rate cuts will be appropriate “eventually” if inflation moves sustainably toward 2%.

Data scheduled for release this week include US GDP estimates for the first quarter, expected to be released at 1230 GMT, and personal consumption expenditure inflation data on Friday.

Waterer added: “If the core personal consumption expenditures reading leaves financial markets pessimistic about when the Fed’s first interest rate cut might occur, gold could fall back toward the $2,270 level.” (Fedwatch)

While bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

“Gold prices remain entangled in a tug of war between a less pessimistic Fed and high levels of geopolitical tension,” analysts at BMI said in a note dated Wednesday.

“The main driver of lower gold prices in the longer term will be increased appetite for risk as the global economy recovers in the latter part of the decade.”

Asian stocks fell and bond yields rose on jitters over inflation on Thursday, while the yen’s decline to above $160 prompted currency traders to brace for Japan’s intervention and stabilization.

-Oil declines with an increase in inventories, which raises the possibility of a slowdown in demand in the United States, with Brent crude trading at levels of $84.00, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude at levels of $81.00.

Tsuyoshi Ueno, chief economist at NLI Research Institute, said: “The expected increase in US inventories of crude oil and gasoline is affecting the market due to fears of weak demand.”

He added, “The market is in a state of tension, supported by the possibility that the escalation in the battle between Israel and Hezbollah will hinder supplies.”

-The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a jump of 3.6 million barrels in the country’s crude oil inventories last week, surprising analysts polled by Reuters who had expected a draw of 2.9 million barrels.

-Bitcoin price failed to recover above the $62,500 resistance area. Bitcoin is showing bearish signs and may fall back below the $60,000 support level.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2300.72

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2294.62, with a price target of 2288.17 and 2281.95.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2306.00, with a target price of 2312.43 and then 2319.56.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.43 per barrel

The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $80.64, targeting a price of $81.11, then 81.67.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $79.96 level, targeting $79.44, then 78.85.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06924

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.07045, targeting a price of 1.07230, then 1.07454.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle below 1.06818, targeting the price of 1.06658 then 1.06445.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26368

The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability at the highest level of 1.26516, targeting the price of 1.26802, then 1.27024.

Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26180, targeting the price of 1.25983 then 1.25759.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19947

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 19984 with a target price of 20054 then 20134

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19883, price of 19826, then 19775.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America GDP (quarterly) (Quarter 1) 15:30

-From the United States of America, unemployment claims rates are 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled around 106 on Thursday after hitting a two-month high in the previous session, supported by hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official and the central bank’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation will remain high for some time, so it is not yet appropriate to start cutting interest rates.

The Fed has repeatedly indicated that it needs more confidence about the inflation outlook before easing policy, unlike other major central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Swiss Central Bank and the Bank of Canada which have already cut interest rates.

The dollar is also tracking a rise in Treasury yields, with the US benchmark 10-year yield hitting a two-week high above 4.3%.

Investors are now looking to Thursday’s weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales data, as well as Friday’s personal consumption expenditures inflation report to better guide expectations.
The dollar held near multi-decade highs against the yen and near multi-month highs against other major currencies.

Gold prices stabilized today, Thursday, after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, while investors awaited US inflation data to see how quickly the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) will reduce interest rates.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after a surprise increase in US inventories raised concerns about slowing demand from the world’s largest oil consumer, but the declines were capped by concerns that a potential expansion of the war in Gaza would disrupt supplies from the Middle East.