enDaily Analysis 27/05/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell around 104.7 on Monday, with trading volumes expected to remain weak with most investors away for the Memorial Day holiday in the United States.
-Gold is recovering from the lowest level in two weeks as traders await US inflation data
The metal recorded its lowest levels since May 9 on Friday
-It is possible that gold will rebound lower at the levels of $2280 – $2300
Matt Simpson, chief analyst at City Index, said: “I think gold can manage a slight rebound from current levels before retesting the $2280-2300 area, which may see losses extended if US data continues to outperform.”
-The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled to be released on Friday.
Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
-Federal Reserve meeting minutes published last week showed that the central bank’s path to 2% inflation may take longer than expected.
Traders’ bets have indicated growing doubts that the Fed will cut rates more than once in 2024, currently forecasting a roughly 63% chance of a rate cut by November according to the CME FedWatch tool. (Fedwatch)
The Chinese yuan hovered near the lowest level in a month against the dollar on Monday, while investors cautiously awaited economic data from home and abroad to obtain more clues about the currency’s outlook.
-: Ralph Lauren stock rises 3.3% with increased profits and strong revenues of $1.57 billion.
Asian stocks rose on Monday as investors braced for a crowded series of inflation data that could pave the way for European interest rate cuts as soon as next week and US policy easing in just a few months.
Oil prices are stable as markets shift focus to the OPEC+ meeting, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $77.00.
Brent ended last week down about two percent and West Texas Intermediate crude lost about three percent after the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that some officials would be willing to tighten interest rates further if they saw it necessary to control ongoing inflation.
-Public holidays in the US and UK on Monday are expected to keep trading relatively weak.
-Bitcoin price is slowly losing momentum and struggling below $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and facing hurdles near the $69,500 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2342.46
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2349.54, with a target price of 2355.97 and 2363.10.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2338.16, with a target price of 2331.71 and then 2325.48.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.80 per barrel
The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $77.29 level, targeting a price of $76.77, then 76.18. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $77.97 level, targeting a price of $78.44, then 79.00.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08482
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08560, targeting the price of 1.08745, then 1.08970.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08333, targeting the price of 1.08173 then 1.07960.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27394
The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27501, targeting the price of 1.27787, then 1.28009.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.27165, targeting a price of 1.26968 then 1.26744.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18864
The first scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 18909, targeting the price of 18978 then 19059.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 18807, price 18750, then 18699.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
from the United States of America – a closed holiday on the occasion of Martyrs’ Memorial Day
From Britain – a bank holiday
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell around 104.7 on Monday, with trading volumes expected to remain weak with most investors away for the US Memorial Day holiday.
Markets are also looking to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report later this week for clues on the Fed’s monetary policy path.
The dollar rose last week, as strong US economic data weighed on sentiment about interest rate cuts.
Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting also showed that some officials would be willing to tighten policy further if inflation rises again.
Since then, markets have fallen short of expectations for the start of the easing cycle from September to December this year.
Externally, investors are also looking to inflation data from other major economies to guide global interest rate expectations, with Australia, Germany and the euro zone due to report this week.
Gold prices rose on Monday from a two-week low hit in the previous session as traders gauge fading hopes for a cut in US interest rates ahead of a key inflation report due later this week.
Oil prices stabilized in Asian trading on Monday as markets awaited the OPEC+ meeting on June 2, where producers are expected to discuss maintaining voluntary production cuts for the rest of the year.
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