Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index rose to around 104.4 on Wednesday, approaching a six-week high, as investors look ahead to the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report due later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
• Gold falls as dollar rises, investors look for more Fed signals
• Gold prices have risen more than 5% so far this year and hit a record high last week, supported by rising bets on Fed easing and continued safe-haven demand and central bank buying amid geopolitical tensions.
• “It’s hard to build a strong bearish case for gold prices given the current geopolitical backdrop and potential central bank easing,” said a senior analyst at City Index.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby said on Monday he proposed three rate cuts this year at the Fed’s policy meeting.
• Investors are now looking ahead to the US core PCE data due on Friday to gauge when the Fed might start cutting rates.
• Traders see a 72% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
• Many markets will be closed on Good Friday when the PCE data is due, so the full reaction is expected to be seen next week.
• US bond yields retreated slightly on Tuesday after strong demand at a $67 billion auction of five-year notes.
• Data on Tuesday showed US durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in February, while business equipment spending showed early signs of a rebound.
• Japanese stocks rose amid a weaker yen on Wednesday, while Chinese stocks fell
• The yen hits a 34-year low ahead of key US inflation data
• Oil continues to decline as US stockpiles rise, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and WTI at $80.00
• Industry data showed US crude stocks jumped 9.337 million barrels last week, reversing a 1.519 million barrel decline the previous week, the largest weekly increase since February last year.
• The US Energy Department also reported that crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by another 0.7 million barrels to 363 million barrels as of March 22, the highest level since April 2023.
• Meanwhile, traders remained cautious as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have affected about 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity.
• Markets are also closely watching geopolitical developments in the Middle East after the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
• Bitcoin price extends gains above $70,000 resistance zone. BTC could rally again if there is a move above the $71,500 resistance level in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2178.08

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2182.11, with a target price of 2187.11 and 2194.06. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2173.82, with a price target of 2167.37 and then 2160.02.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.76 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.09, targeting a price of $81.56, then 82.12. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.41, targeting a price of $79.89, then 79.30.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08289

First scenario: Sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08162, targeting a price of 1.8002, then 1.07789. Alternative scenario: Buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08390, targeting a price of 1.08574, then 1.08799. Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26154

The first scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold below the level of 1.26013, targeting a price of 1.25815 then 1.25591. Alternative scenario: buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close above 1.26349, targeting a price of 1.26635 then 1.26856.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18515

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18529, targeting the price of 18568 then 18614. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18470, targeting a price of 18428 then 18384.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• US Crude Oil Stocks 17:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index rose to around 104.4 on Wednesday, approaching a six-week high, as investors look ahead to the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report due later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
• The US currency was also supported by bets that US interest rates could stay higher for longer even as other major economies start cutting rates, prompting traders to seek haven and safety in the dollar.
• Last week, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate, citing the strength of the franc.
• The Bank of England also turned less hawkish, with two policymakers who previously voted to raise rates now backing off.
• The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, has moved away from negative interest rates and ended yield curve control, but is expected to remain dovish for now.
• Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday that the central bank needs to proceed cautiously when it decides when to start cutting rates.
• Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the dollar rose, though the bullion traded in a narrow range as investors remained on the sidelines awaiting further cues on US Federal Reserve policy.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell towards $81 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as a surprise large build in US crude stocks raised concerns about demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer.