Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose to around 106.6 on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements sparked caution in markets.

Gold rises on Trump tariff concerns; US inflation data in focus

Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause in massive new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could go into effect on April 2, and rolling out a “reciprocal” 25% tariff on European cars and other goods.

Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.

Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later today to offer more insight into monetary policy easing this year amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs.

Markets will then look to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due out on Friday, for further confirmation of the central bank’s interest rate path.

The consensus forecast was for the monthly personal consumption expenditures index to rise 0.3%, unchanged from December, according to a Reuters poll, while the core figure was expected to rise 0.3%, compared with 0.2% in December.

Gold bullion is seen as a hedge against political risk and inflation, but rising interest rates are dampening the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Oil rises after Trump revokes Chevron’s license in Venezuela, with Brent crude trading at $72.00 and WTI at $68.00

Both indices hit two-month lows in the previous session.

Chevron exports about 240,000 barrels per day of crude oil from its operations in Venezuela.

The previous day, contracts settled at their lowest since Dec. 10 due to a surprise increase in U.S. fuel inventories, which pointed to weak demand and hopes for a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Both benchmarks have lost about 5% so far this month.

Trump said on Wednesday that he was revoking the license that his predecessor, Joe Biden, granted to Chevron to operate in Venezuela more than two years ago.

Chevron exports about 240,000 barrels of crude oil per day from its operations in Venezuela, more than a quarter of the country’s total oil production. The revocation of the license means Chevron will no longer be able to export Venezuelan crude oil.

“The Venezuela news triggered a wave of declines after recent selling amid ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“Potential buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve also supported the market since WTI was trading near its lowest level in more than two months,” he added.

Last week, Trump said his administration would quickly fill the strategic reserve, and he criticized Biden for using the strategic reserve to lower gasoline prices.

Market participants remain focused on Trump’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Trump said Volodymyr Zelensky would visit Washington on Friday to sign a rare earths deal, while the Ukrainian leader said the deal’s success would depend on those talks and continued U.S. aid.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week as refining activity rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks posted surprise gains, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Bitcoin price has started to decline again below the $88,000 support level. Bitcoin price must remain above the $80,000 area to avoid further losses in the near term.

Bitcoin price has started to decline again below the $90,000 support level. Bitcoin price must remain above the $86,000 area to avoid further losses in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2890.08

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2899.81, targeting 2908.84 and 2917.01

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2886.95. Target price 2879.93 and then 2872.79

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $68.69 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $68.89 levels, targeting $69.23 and then $69.58.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $68.33 with a target price of $67.97 then $67.54

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.04769

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04828, targeting 1.05008 and then 1.05214.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04577, targeting 1.04402 and then 1.04201.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: .1.26655

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.26750 level, targeting the price of 1.26927 and then 1.27125.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.26459, targeting 1.26260 and then 1.26070.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21322

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21370 with a target price of 21481 then 21590

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21213 with target price of 21108 then 21000

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From USA GDP (Q4) (Q4)
From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose to around 106.6 on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements sparked caution in markets.

On Wednesday, Trump signaled plans to impose reciprocal 25% tariffs on European cars and other goods, while saying tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect on April 2, instead of the previously scheduled March 4 deadline.

While markets have largely absorbed his mixed message, some traders warn that the risks associated with deeper tariffs may still be understated.

Meanwhile, investors are awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday.

Recent economic data has shown signs of weakness, leading markets to price in two quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs persisted, while investors awaited a key inflation report to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Oil prices rose for the first time in three days on Thursday, as supply concerns resurfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the revocation of a license granted to Chevron Corp.