enDaily Analysis 27/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose above 107.7 on Monday, recovering some of the losses it suffered last week after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, raising concerns about global trade.
Gold retreats, eyes on Fed decision
The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, marking the first pause in a rate-cutting cycle that began in September.
However, the market’s focus is likely to be on how the Federal Reserve will react to comments from President Donald Trump, who called for continued interest rate cuts.
While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing gold’s appeal.
In addition, the precious metal is facing downward pressure from a rebound in the US dollar, amid renewed concerns over tariffs after Trump said he would impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after the country refused to land US military planes carrying deported migrants.
U.S. stock futures and Asian shares outside China fell on Monday as investors assessed the fallout from Chinese startup DeepSeek’s launch of a free, open-source artificial intelligence model to rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Oil falls after Trump’s repeated call for OPEC to lower prices, with Brent crude trading at $78.00 and WTI at $73.00. Trump on Friday renewed his call for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia and help end the war in Ukraine.
“One way to stop this quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and lower the price of oil… This war will stop immediately,” Trump said.
Trump also threatened to impose taxes, tariffs and sanctions on Russia “and other participating countries” if an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is not reached soon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday he should meet with Trump to discuss the Ukraine war and energy prices.
“They are preparing for negotiations,” said John Driscoll of Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.
He added that oil markets may be slightly biased to the downside with Trump’s policies aimed at boosting US production in his quest to secure foreign markets for US crude.
“He will want to control some of OPEC’s market share, so in that sense he is a kind of competitor,” Driscoll said.
But OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to respond to Trump’s call, with OPEC+ delegates indicating a plan is already in place to start increasing oil production from April.
Both benchmarks posted their first declines in five weeks last week as concerns eased about sanctions on Russia that could disrupt supplies.
Bitcoin price struggled at $107,000 and then corrected its gains. Bitcoin price is now approaching $100,000 and may find offers in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2750.56
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2757.87, targeting 2764.30 and 2771.43
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2746.49. Targeting 2740.49 and then 2732.21
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.05 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $73.66 level, targeting $73.14 and then $72.55.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $74.34, targeting $74.81 and then $75.37
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04634
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04676, targeting 1.04860 and then 1.05085.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04448, targeting 1.04288 and then 1.04075.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24388
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.24173 level, targeting the price of 1.23920 and then 1.23699
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24461, targeting 1.24702 and then 1.24988
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21334
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 21279, targeting a price of 21155 and then 21048
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21436 with a target price of 21540 then 21658
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America New Home Sales (December) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 107.7 on Monday, recovering some of the losses it suffered last week after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, raising concerns about global trade.
Trump’s threat comes after Colombia banned two US military aircraft from transporting deported migrants as part of the current administration’s immigration crackdown.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, with most observers expecting it to keep interest rates unchanged.
However, the central bank is facing increasing pressure from Trump to lower borrowing costs, and a rate cut in March remains a possibility.
Traders are also closely watching the upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
The US dollar rose across the board, posting its biggest gains against the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the yuan.
Gold fell below $2,760 an ounce on Monday as investors prepared for a policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this week.
Oil prices fell on Monday after US President Donald Trump called on OPEC to lower prices following the announcement of sweeping measures to boost US oil and gas production in his first week in office.
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