Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady around 101.6 in light trading on Tuesday, approaching a five-month low, as further signs of slowing inflation in the United States boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Gold prices rose as expectations for Fed rate cuts strengthened.
• Traders see an 89% chance of a Fed rate cut by March 2024.
• In response to an attack, the U.S. military launched a strike in Iraq.
• Oil prices rose amid disruptions in the Red Sea, trading at $79.00 a barrel for Brent crude and $73.50 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• Japanese stocks closed higher in choppy trading, with gains for major companies.
• The impending deadline for the Securities and Exchange Commission is spurring final tweaks to deposits for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds.
• Bitcoin prices fell to trade at $42,000.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,063.83

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,067.93, targeting a price of $2,072.99 and $2,079.94.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,059.70, targeting a price of $2,053.25 and then $2,045.90.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $73.80 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $74.04, targeting a price of $74.51 and then $75.08.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $73.36, targeting a price of $72.84 and then $72.26.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.10248

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.10097, targeting a price of $1.09937 and then $1.09724.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10324, targeting a price of $1.10409 and then $1.10733.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27077

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26948, targeting a price of $1.26651 and then $1.26427.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27184, targeting a price of $1.27470 and then $1.27691.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $17,023

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,987, targeting a price of $16,945 and then $16,902.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $17,046, targeting a price of $17,086 and then $17,132.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe, Australia, and the United Kingdom are closed for Christmas.
• The United States will hold a two-year Treasury auction at 21:00.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 101.6 in light trading on Tuesday, approaching a five-month low, as further signs of slowing inflation in the United States boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Data released on Friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, fell to 3.2% in November from 3.4% in October, below expectations of 3.3%.
• In addition, figures released on Thursday pointed to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the third quarter and a slight increase in recent jobless claims.
• The dollar traded near its lowest levels in several months against other major currencies, and is at risk of falling further against the yen, as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday that the likelihood of achieving its 2% inflation target is “gradually rising.”
• Gold prices rose in thin holiday trading on Tuesday, as U.S. dollar and bond yields retreated on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in early March next year.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. military carried out precise retaliatory airstrikes in Iraq after a one-way drone attack earlier on Monday by Iranian-aligned militants that injured three U.S. soldiers.
• Gold is seen as a safe haven asset in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
• Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the euro zone are closed on Tuesday for Christmas.
• Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trade amid disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea. However, oil is likely to come under pressure in the first quarter of 2024 after Angola left OPEC due to disagreements over recent production cuts.