enDaily Analysis 26/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar jumps after Trump threatens higher tariffs
The dollar index rose above 107 on Tuesday after President-elect Donald Trump stepped up his threats to raise tariffs, especially on China, Mexico and Canada, which led to renewed demand for the dollar.
Gold holds lower as Middle East tensions ease
The precious metal was also affected by the rise in the US dollar after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada starting on his first day in office, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.
-Among the factors that had a greater impact on gold prices was the nomination of Scott Bessent to the position of Treasury Secretary in the new administration.
-Bissent called for implementing trade restrictions in stages, and expressed his willingness to negotiate tariff levels supported by the next president.
Investors are now turning to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, due later today, which could provide crucial insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
Gold falls as safe-haven appeal wanes
Gold fell in early Asian trading. The precious metal fell 3.4% on Monday, its biggest daily decline since early November, on reports that Israel was nearing a ceasefire with Hezbollah,
Analysts added that Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary also dented the precious metal’s appeal as a safe haven.
Oil holds losses amid hopes of Middle East ceasefire
Brent crude trades at $72.00, WTI at $69.00
However, it remains unclear whether the Iran-backed group will accept the truce.
Oil prices also faced downward pressure from the strength of the US dollar after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.
However, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Iran’s plans to expand its nuclear fuel production are providing some support to oil prices, limiting further declines.
Traders are now looking to the OPEC meeting on December 1 to further guide market expectations.
Oil prices fall as Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire nears
Oil prices fell in early trading in Asia as a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah approached,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a proposed ceasefire with Hezbollah “in principle” during a security consultation with Israeli officials on Sunday evening,
Oil fundamentals are relatively stable, and investors will be watching the outcome of this week’s OPEC meeting.
-Bitcoin price is correcting its gains below the $96,500 resistance level. Bitcoin is now trading below $95,000 and may face hurdles near the $95,750 resistance level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2625.38
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2622.32, targeting 2615.88 and then 2608.04
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2633.71 with a target price of 2640.14 and 2647.26
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $69.02 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $68.59 level, targeting $68.06 and then $67.48.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $69.26 levels, targeting $69.73 and then $70.30.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04798
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.04698, targeting 1.04538 and then 1.04325
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.04925, targeting 1.05110 and then 1.05334.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25525
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.25397 level, targeting the price of 1.25157 and then 1.24935
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.25700, targeting 1.25938 and then 1.26225
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20904
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21013 with a target price of 21117 then 21235
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20857 with a target price of 20735 then 20625
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA CB Consumer Confidence Index (November) 18:00
-From USA New Home Sales (October) 18:00
-From USA FOMC Meeting Minutes 22:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 107 on Tuesday after President-elect Donald Trump stepped up his threats to raise tariffs, especially on China, Mexico and Canada, which led to renewed demand for the dollar.
Trump announced that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods entering the United States, in addition to 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
The index fell 0.6% on Monday after Trump nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, giving markets a sense of stability.
Looking ahead, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes, personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and other key economic indicators this week, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
The US dollar rose across the board, with the Australian dollar weakening further, as it is seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan.
Gold held steady around $2,620 an ounce on Tuesday after falling 3.4% in the previous session as demand for safe-haven assets increased on reports that Israel and Hezbollah were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled around $69 a barrel on Tuesday after losing more than 3 percent in the previous session, following reports that Lebanon and Israel had agreed on the terms of a deal to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, helping ease concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. On Monday, Israel’s ambassador to the United States suggested a deal could be reached “within days.”
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