Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks, supported by strong bond yields.
• Gold rose as the conflict in the Middle East dominated sentiment. Gold rose 0.4% in spot trading and 0.1% in U.S. futures.
• The U.S. third-quarter GDP, weekly initial jobless claims, and the euro interest rate are due to be released today.
• Oil prices held their gains amid concerns over the escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas and the disruption of supplies in the oil-rich region. Brent crude traded at $88.35 and West Texas Intermediate at $84.45.
• Bitcoin prices touched $35,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,985.25

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,990.44, targeting a price of $1,995.50 and then $2,002.44.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,982.21, targeting a price of $1,975.76 and then $1,968.52.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $84.27 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $84.80, targeting a price of $85.35 and then $85.85.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.18, targeting a price of $83.60 and then $83.08.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05424

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05358, targeting a price of $1.05198 and then $1.05006.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05588, targeting a price of $1.05775 and then $1.05984.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.20770

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.20665, targeting a price of $1.20467 and then $1.20243.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21001, targeting a price of $1.21286 and then $1.21508.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,323

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,285, targeting a price of $14,231 and then $14,159.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,366, targeting a price of $14,427 and then $14,490.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Interest Rate Index at 15:15
• United States: Trade Balance Index at 15:30
• United States: Durable Goods Orders Index at 15:30
• United States: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Index at 15:30
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 15:30
• United States: Pending Home Sales Index at 15:30
• Europe: European Central Bank President speech at 17:15

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar rose above 106.7 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks and tracking rising Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moving back toward the psychologically important 5% level.
• These moves came as stronger-than-expected data provided additional evidence of the resilience of the U.S. economy, supporting the longer-term view for higher interest rates.
• It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, but it is slated to keep rates elevated for some time.
• Investors are now looking to U.S. GDP data on Thursday for further guidance.
• In addition, the dollar continued to benefit from weakness in the euro amid bleak growth forecasts for the bloc following the unexpected contraction in business activity in the euro area.
• Gold prices rose on Thursday as investors remained concerned about the conflict in the Middle East, with the yellow metal holding steady as a safe haven despite rising U.S. dollar and bond yields.
• The dollar and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose after data showed that new home sales rose to a 19-month high in September, confirming market expectations for higher interest rates for a long time through 2024.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at around $85.50 a barrel on Thursday after jumping by nearly 2% in the previous session, as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East amid concerns about an escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas and disruption of supplies in the oil-rich region.
• Oil prices also found support from news that the Chinese government would expand its budget deficit and issue 1 trillion yuan ($157 billion) of supplementary bonds for disaster relief and infrastructure development, which could lead to higher demand for energy in the world’s largest crude oil importer.