Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index stabilized around 105.6 on Wednesday as investors remained neutral ahead of US personal consumption expenditures inflation data scheduled for release later this week which could impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Gold prices fell with focus on US inflation data

-US personal consumption expenditures data is scheduled to be released on Friday. Bowman stresses keeping interest rates steady “for some time.” The upward surprise in personal consumption expenditures could lead to a disintegration of gold.

“The rise in Treasury yields and the US dollar’s ​​overnight rally on the back of hawkish Fed comments has led to some weakness in gold prices this morning, as calls for faster policy easing failed to find much buy-in from policymakers,” said Yep Jun, market strategist at IG Rong.

US Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday reiterated her view that keeping interest rates steady “for some time” may be enough to control inflation, but she also reiterated her willingness to raise borrowing costs if necessary. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said “at some point” it will be time to cut interest rates.

US first-quarter GDP estimates are due on Thursday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report is due on Friday.

“Risks come with any upside surprise in inflation, which could lead to more uncertainty about Fed policies and could see further unwinding in the yellow metal,” IG’s John Rong added. (Fedwatch)

High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Downs in the price of gold remain relatively shallow thanks to buyers stepping in from the sidelines due to price declines,” Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a note.

Waterer added that the $2,368 level must be breached for gold to surpass the highest levels recorded last week.

Asian stocks stumbled in choppy trading on Wednesday, as markets braced for a key US inflation reading, while the yen remained lurking near the 160 level against the dollar, keeping traders on alert for another round of intervention by Japanese authorities.

-Oil rises with expectations of stock withdrawals and Middle East risks, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $81.00.

Suvru Sarkar, from the energy sector, said: “The market seems to be ignoring demand concerns at the moment, anticipating a decline in inventories at the peak of the demand season in the third quarter.” Today’s official Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory numbers will provide the market with further indications of this trend.” Leading the team at DBS Bank.

-The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 914,000 barrels in the week ending June 21, according to market sources familiar with the data. Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude inventories to decline by about 3 million barrels last week.

Official U.S. government data from the Energy Information Administration on oil and fuel inventories is scheduled to be released at 17:30 Mecca time.

-Bitcoin price recovered above the $62,000 resistance area. BTC must clear the $62,500 resistance area to continue higher in the near term.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2314.17

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2308.46, with a target price of 2302.02 and 2295.79.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2319.85, targeting a price of 2326.28 and then 2333.40.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.09 per barrel

The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $81.23, targeting a price of $81.70, then 82.26.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $80.55 level, targeting $80.03, then 79.45.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06993

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.07180, targeting 1.07365 and then 1.07590.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle below 1.06953, targeting the price of 1.06793 then 1.06580.

Comment: Trading on supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26827

The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27085, targeting the price of 1.27370, then 1.27592.

Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26749, targeting a price of 1.26551 then 1.26327.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20020

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20054, targeting 20123 then 20203

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19952, price of 19895, then 19844.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA New Home Sales (May) 17:00

-US crude oil inventory 17:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 105.6 on Wednesday as investors remained neutral ahead of US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data due later this week that could impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Investors also weighed in on the Fed’s latest comments, with Governors Lisa Cook and Michael Bowman signaling they are in no rush to cut interest rates as upside risks to inflation remain.

Moreover, markets braced for the first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday, as well as the French elections that start this weekend.
Meanwhile, the dollar weakened against the Australian dollar as Australia’s monthly inflation gauge came in hotter than expected in May, while the yen continued to hover near 160 against the dollar, which had previously prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in currency markets.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday ahead of crucial US inflation data due this week, which may provide more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of the year.

Oil prices rose during Asian trading on Wednesday despite a surprise jump in US inventories driven by geopolitical risks from the conflict in the Middle East and expectations of an eventual inventory drawdown during the peak demand season in the third quarter.