enDaily Analysis 26/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar Index Steadies Ahead of Key US Inflation Data
The dollar index steadied around 105.6 on Friday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key US inflation reading for March that could provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
With a light economic calendar in the UK and the eurozone, the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for March – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation – will take center stage later on Friday.
Any upside surprises could once again push back expectations for a Fed rate cut, currently seen as starting in September. (Fedwatch)
The resilience of the US economy in the face of interest rates that have been at multi-decade highs is somewhat remarkable.
While the country’s first-quarter GDP came in below expectations, that was due to a surge in imports and a slight inventory build. However, domestic demand remained strong, business investment rebounded, and the housing recovery gained momentum.
Gold on Track for First Weekly Decline in Six Weeks; Focus on US Inflation Data
Gold is on track for its first weekly decline in six weeks as investors await US inflation data due later today.
Gold is posting its biggest weekly decline since Dec. 8
The PCE report is due out at 15:30 Mecca time. Silver, platinum, and palladium have all fallen this week.
The data showed that US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, but the increase in inflation underscored recent statements from Fed officials that suggest the central bank is not in a hurry to cut rates.
John Runge said a big acceleration in PCE numbers could raise expectations that we may only see one Fed rate cut this year.
Asian Stocks Rise, Yen Weakens as BOJ Stands Pat on Rates
Asian stocks rose and the yen weakened as the Bank of Japan stood pat on interest rates.
The BOJ kept rates steady, expects inflation to stay around 2%
US GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter
META: Meta stock wipes out $200 billion in 15% plunge as spending surge spooks investors
Oil Prices Set to End Two-Week Losing Streak
Oil prices are on track to end a two-week losing streak, with Brent crude trading around $88.00 and West Texas Intermediate around $83.00.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday that US first-quarter GDP growth could be revised upward and that inflation will ease after a series of “special” factors that pushed the economy to its weakest performance in nearly two years.
Bitcoin Price Fails to Recover Above $65,500 Resistance
Bitcoin price failed to recover above the $65,500 resistance level. BTC is moving lower again and there is a risk of further downside below $63,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $83.70 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $83.96, targeting a price of $84.43, then 85.00. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $83.29, targeting a price of $82.76, then 82.18.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07286
The first scenario: Buying the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07353, targeting a price of 1.07538, then 1.07763. Alternative scenario: Selling the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07126, targeting a price of 1.06966, then 1.06753.
Comment: Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25089
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.250204, targeting a price of 1.25490 then 1.25712. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.24868, targeting a price of 1.24671 then 1.24447.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17435
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17834, targeting the price of 17903 then 18000. Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17710 with a price of 17648 then 17578.
Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision – 6:00 AM CEST
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (YoY) (March) – 3:30 PM CEST
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (MoM) (March) – 3:30 PM CEST
- Federal Budget (Annual) (February) – 6:00 PM CEST
Fundamental Analysis
The index dipped to a near two-week low on Thursday after data revealed the US economy grew at a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. This falls significantly short of expectations of 2.5% and marks the slowest growth in about two years.
Meanwhile, the same report indicated core inflation accelerated in the first quarter, and recent unemployment claims continued to point to a tight labor market. This throws uncertainty on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
The dollar lost ground against most major currencies but hovered near its 34-year high versus the yen as the Bank of Japan prepares for a monetary policy decision.
Gold prices remained almost unchanged on Friday ahead of a key US inflation report, but are on track for their first weekly decline in six weeks as fears of a major escalation in the Middle East crisis subside.
Oil prices rose on Friday, poised to end the week in positive territory after two consecutive weeks of losses. This comes after a senior US official expressed optimism about economic growth, and as supply concerns due to Middle Eastern conflicts persist.
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