enDaily Analysis 26/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index hovered around 104.2 on Wednesday, registering minor movement as investors assessed uncertainty surrounding trade and the broader U.S. economy. Markets remained cautious ahead of President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs, which are set to take effect next week, although their scope remains unclear.
Gold falls as dollar rises; concerns over Trump’s plans for tit-for-tat tariffs
US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than four years in March.
Gold has risen 15% so far this year,
and Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said the strength of the US dollar is weighing on prices. “Prices are now trapped in a sideways range due to uncertainty about how the planned reciprocal tariffs on April 2 will be implemented,” he added.
Trump’s tariff policies are likely to be inflationary, potentially slowing economic growth and intensifying trade tensions.
“There are real concerns about US economic growth, as well as inflation. The US is likely to face a stagflation scenario, and this could support prices,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than four years in March, as households feared a recession and rising inflation due to tariffs.
Gold, a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability, has risen 15% so far this year, hitting an all-time high of $3,057.21 on March 20.
Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later today. Markets are awaiting US personal consumption expenditures data on Friday for clues on monetary policy.
“We expect gold to reach $3,200 by September,” said Kumari of ANZ Bank, adding that any hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve could slow gold’s rally.
In another context, the United States reached agreements on Tuesday with Ukraine and Russia to halt their attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to pressure to lift some sanctions imposed on Moscow.
Oil nears three-week high on supply concerns, US stocks slide, Brent nears $73.00, WTI nears $68.00
Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude hit three-week highs in the previous session.
Trump’s pressure on Venezuela and Iran sparks positive sentiment among oil fans
Russia and Ukraine agree to a maritime and energy truce
Crude oil prices maintain their upward trend after Trump’s sanctions on Venezuelan oil, raising supply concerns.
On Monday, Trump signed an executive order authorizing his administration to impose a 25% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 on imports from any country that purchases crude oil and liquid fuels from Venezuela.
Oil is Venezuela’s main export, and China, already subject to US tariffs, is its largest buyer.
Venezuelan oil trade with major buyer China halted on Tuesday, with Chinese traders and refiners saying they were waiting to see how the order would be implemented and whether Beijing would direct them to stop buying.
Last week, Washington imposed a new round of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, targeting entities including Shouguang Lucheng Petrochemical, an independent refinery in eastern China’s Shandong province, and vessels that supply such refineries in China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil.
The market also received support from data from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed that US crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, a sign of healthy fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 1 million barrels.
The US government is scheduled to release official data on crude oil inventories on Wednesday.
Sachdeva of Philip Nova said the rise in oil prices is a temporary phenomenon, with the possibility of an economic slowdown due to Trump’s tariffs limiting price gains.
Bitcoin price began a steady climb above $86,500. It is now correcting its gains and may find buying opportunities near $87,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3027.89
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3031.57, targeting 3040.60 and 3048.76.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 3018.70, targeting 3011.69 and then 3004.54.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.95 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $69.31, targeting $69.67 and then $70.02.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $68.76 level, targeting $68.40 and then $67.97.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07855
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.08020, targeting 1.08200 and then 1.08407.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.07769, targeting 1.07594 and then 1.07393.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29086
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.29286, targeting 1.29476 and then 1.29675.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29009, targeting 1.28810 and then 1.28620.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20490
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 20394, targeting 20282 and then 20174.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20,544, targeting 20,663 and then 20,771.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Britain Consumer Price Index (YoY) (February) 10:00
-From the USA US Crude Oil Inventory 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index hovered around 104.2 on Wednesday, registering minor movement as investors assessed uncertainty surrounding trade and the broader U.S. economy. Markets remained cautious ahead of President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs, which are set to take effect next week, although their scope remains unclear.
Meanwhile, data released Tuesday revealed a decline in US consumer confidence, with future expectations hitting a 12-year low.
Investors are now turning to comments from Federal Reserve officials later today for insights on the outlook for monetary policy.
Furthermore, focus remains on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
The dollar was steady against most major currencies, but gained some ground against the Japanese yen.
Gold prices fell slightly on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened, as market participants prepared for US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans, which they fear will fuel inflation and hamper economic growth.
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday amid supply concerns as the United States intensifies its efforts to curb Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports, while a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories also provided support.
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