enDaily Analysis 26/02/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index traded around 106.3 on Wednesday, hovering near an 11-week low, as weak U.S. economic data and lower Treasury yields weighed on the currency.
Gold rises from one-week low as tariff uncertainty boosts demand
Gold fell more than 2% to a one-week low on Tuesday.
Trump Orders New Investigation Into Possible Tariffs on US Copper Imports
Markets await US personal consumption spending data due on Friday
Concerns over Trump’s tariffs, which are causing weak consumer confidence in the US economy, are supporting gold, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.
In another sign that Americans are growing concerned about the potential negative impact of Trump’s policies, U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated at its fastest pace in three-and-a-half years in February, while 12-month inflation expectations rose.
“It is difficult to make major changes in monetary policy amid such uncertainty,” said Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
High inflation could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Fears that Trump’s tariff proposals could ignite a major global trade war have helped gold hit multiple record highs and rise about 11% this year.
Market participants are awaiting the U.S. personal consumption expenditures report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into the central bank’s rate-easing path and monetary policy. The report is due out on Friday.
“If the numbers confirm underlying concerns of higher inflation again, expectations of a Fed rate cut could be curbed further,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Oil rises as US inventory report trumps rising supply concerns, Brent trades at $72.00, WTI at $68.00
– U.S. crude inventories fell by 640,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 21, market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Official U.S. inventory data is due later on Wednesday.
“If confirmed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration later today, it would mark the first draw in U.S. crude inventories since mid-January,” ING commodity strategists said in a note on Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected U.S. crude inventories to rise by 2.6 million barrels last week.
On the supply side, the prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine are improving, according to ING Bank, while the market is also monitoring the potential impact of a US-Ukraine metals agreement.
“This would bring us a step closer to lifting sanctions on Russia, which would remove a lot of the supply uncertainty hanging over the market,” ING strategists said.
The United States and Ukraine have agreed on terms for a draft metals deal that is central to Trump’s efforts to quickly end the war in Ukraine, people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, gloomy economic reports from the United States and Germany capped price gains, sending oil prices down more than 2% on Tuesday. Brent crude closed at its lowest since Dec. 23, while WTI hit its lowest since Dec. 10.
Bitcoin price has started to decline again below the $90,000 support level. Bitcoin price must remain above the $86,000 area to avoid further losses in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2911.40
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2917.67, targeting 2927.06 and 2934.82
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2904.75. Target price 2897.74 and then 2890.60
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $69.06 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $69.28 levels, targeting $69.64 and then $69.99.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $68.73 with a target price of $68.37 then $67.94
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04932
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.05037, targeting 1.05217 and then 1.05423.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability by closing a candle below 1.04786, targeting 1.04611 and then 1.04409.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: .1.26472
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.26575 level, targeting the price of 1.26751 and then 1.26950.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.26283, targeting 1.26084 and then 1.25895
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21289
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21372 with a target price of 21450 then 21559
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21182 with target price 21077 then 20969
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
US Crude Oil Inventories 18:00
US New Home Sales (Jan) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index traded around 106.3 on Wednesday, hovering near an 11-week low, as weak U.S. economic data and lower Treasury yields weighed on the currency.
Data released Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell 7 points to an eight-month low of 98.3 in February, well below expectations of 102.5 and marking a third straight monthly decline.
Growing concerns about economic growth and inflation in the United States, coupled with the threat of imminent tariffs on Canada and Mexico by President Trump, are adding to market jitters.
On the monetary policy front, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin indicated a cautious “wait and see” approach, stressing the need for clearer signals that inflation is returning to the 2% target.
Investors are now awaiting the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth and the personal spending price index report for additional guidance on future interest rate expectations.
Gold prices rose on Wednesday after hitting a one-week low in the previous session, as growing uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans dampened risk appetite and boosted demand for the yellow metal as a safe haven.
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, recovering from two-month lows hit in the previous session, after an industry group reported that U.S. crude inventories fell last week.
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