enDaily Analysis 25/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar falls after Trump nominates Besant for Treasury Secretary
The dollar index fell 0.6 percent to below 107 on Monday, retreating from a two-year high after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, giving investors a sense of stability.
Gold falls below $2,700
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that his forces might use a new missile again, following retaliatory strikes on Ukraine over its deployment of US- and British-made weapons on Russian soil.
The precious metal was also supported by a weaker dollar after US President-elect Donald Trump announced his nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to lead the US Treasury Department.
-Bissent is seen as favoring a more conservative approach on tariffs, which eases concerns about aggressive trade policies.
Meanwhile, market participants will analyze the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and other key US economic indicators to assess the outlook for US interest rates.
Gold falls on possible pullback after recent rally
Gold prices fell in early Asian trading. The precious metal broke through the $2,700 an ounce threshold for the first time in more than two weeks on Friday, on safe-haven demand,
A pullback from the highs is likely as investors are still in the mood to reduce their gold positions.
Oil hovers near two-week high amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with Brent trading at $74.00 and WTI at $70.00.
Last week, oil prices posted their biggest weekly gain in about two months after Ukraine launched its first attack on Russia using U.S. and British weapons, and Russia responded by launching a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile.
-In addition, Iran announced plans to expand its nuclear fuel production capacity after being heavily criticized by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which exacerbated tensions with the West. Moreover, oil prices found support amid rising demand in two of the world’s largest oil importers, China and India.
China’s crude oil imports rebounded in November as lower prices spurred storage activity, while Indian refiners increased their crude output by 3% year-on-year to 5.04 million barrels per day in October, driven by fuel exports.
Oil prices steadied in early Asian trading. Recent prices have been supported by geopolitical tensions. The war between Russia and Ukraine has intensified after months of little action from both sides.
-The use of long-range missiles has increased tensions, including Russia’s use of a new type of ballistic missile that usually carries nuclear warheads.
-Bitcoin price is holding below the $100,000 resistance level. Bitcoin bulls may soon try to break this specific level and push the price higher.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2667.06
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2673.92, targeting 2680.35 and then 2687.48
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2662.54 with a target price of 2656.09 and 2648.26
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.52 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $70.92 level, targeting $71.39 and then $71.95.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.24 levels, targeting $69.72 and then $69.13.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04753 Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.04698, targeting 1.04538 and then 1.04325
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.04925, targeting 1.05110 and then 1.05334.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25918
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.25820 level, targeting the price of 1.25579 and then 1.25358
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26120, targeting 1.26361 and then 1.26647.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20961
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21013 with a target price of 21117 then 21235
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20857 with a target price of 20735 then 20625
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important event for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell 0.6 percent to below 107 on Monday, retreating from a two-year high after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, giving investors a sense of stability.
While Bessent has signaled his support for Trump’s plans for tariffs and tax cuts, markets expect him to prioritize economic and market stability over rapid political change.
The dollar fell against all major currencies, with the euro, pound, Australian dollar and yen making the biggest gains.
Investors are now focused on the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes this week, personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and other key economic indicators to help shape expectations for future interest rate decisions.
The dollar hit a two-year high last week amid expectations that Trump’s policies will drive up inflation, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut borrowing costs.
Gold fell below $2,700 an ounce on Monday on a possible technical pullback after surging 6% last week, driven by safe-haven demand amid rising tensions in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were trading around $71.2 a barrel on Monday, hovering around a two-week high, as rising geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Iran raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
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