enDaily Analysis 25/06/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index settled below 105.5 on Tuesday after losing 0.3% in the previous session, as investors cautiously awaited US personal consumption expenditures inflation data and new comments from the Federal Reserve this week to better guide interest rate expectations.
-Gold drifts lower as traders await US inflation data
-Technical factors are not very positive for gold – US personal consumption expenditures data is scheduled for release on Friday
Kelvin Wong, a technical analyst, said: “Short-term technical factors are not very positive for gold. “After last Friday’s sell-off, short-term traders are looking at this as a bearish signal that explains the lackluster movement in gold holding on to these levels.”
Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday as the dollar jumped after US business activity rose to a 26-month high in June amid a rebound in employment.
-US Q1 GDP estimates are due on Thursday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report is due on Friday.
Wong added that if the actual core PCE figure comes in strong, it will likely not be a rosy news driver for gold and could actually see gold fall below the $2,300 level. (Fedwatch)
-Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday she doesn’t think the U.S. central bank has to cut interest rates before policymakers are confident that inflation is headed toward 2%, but she also noted that rising unemployment represents a growing risk.
Other Fed officials speaking this week included Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman along with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
Most Asian stocks rose on Tuesday after recent losses, while the battered yen hit a record low against the euro, although the risk of intervention led to further weakness against the US dollar.
-Oil prices are stable as concerns about inflation are reduced by the optimism of demand in the summer, with Brent crude trading at levels of $85.00, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude at levels of $81.00.
-Both benchmarks rose about 3% last week, achieving gains for two consecutive weeks.
Demand for gasoline is rising, and oil and fuel stocks have decreased as the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, enters the peak consumption period in the summer.
U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have fallen by 3 million barrels in the week to June 21, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Gasoline stocks are also expected to have fallen, while distillate inventories probably rose last week.
-Bitcoin price gained downward momentum and was trading below $60,000. BTC is indicating a short-term downtrend and may face hurdles near $62,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2325.20
The first scenario: selling gold at a break and holding below 2320.79, with a target price of 2314.29 and 2308.06.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2332.18, targeting the price of 2338.61 and then 2345.73.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $81.39 per barrel
The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $81.78, targeting a price of $82.25, then 82.81.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $81.10 level, targeting $80.58, then 79.99.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07052
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.07491, targeting the price of 1.07676, then 1.07900.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.07264, targeting the price of 1.07104 then 1.06891.
Comment: Trading on supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26886
The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27085, targeting the price of 1.27370, then 1.27592.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26749, targeting a price of 1.26551 then 1.26327.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19782
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 19832, targeting the price of 19902 and then 19982.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19731, price of 19674, then 19623.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May) 15:30
-From the United States of America CB Consumer Confidence Index (June) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index settled below 105.5 on Tuesday after losing 0.3% in the previous session, as investors cautiously awaited US personal consumption expenditures inflation data and new comments from the Federal Reserve this week to better guide interest rate expectations.
Markets also braced for the first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday, as well as the French elections this weekend.
Meanwhile, the dollar rose to its highest level in nearly two months last week, as the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts contrasted with the decision of other major central banks to begin monetary easing earlier.
The US currency has fallen against most major currencies so far this week, and is at risk of falling against the yen as it approaches the level of 160 against the dollar, which previously prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in currency markets.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to key US inflation data due later this week that may shed some light on the Federal Reserve’s stance on cutting interest rates.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday after rising in the previous session as investors remained cautious ahead of US consumer price data even as expected increases in demand in the summer supported the market.
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