enDaily Analysis 25/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index dipped around 105.8 on Thursday as investors awaited key US GDP data that could impact expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
This yen decline follows a series of strong US inflation reports that boosted the dollar to five-month highs and fueled bets the Fed will hold off on rate cuts this year.
The dollar’s gains weakened after data showed new orders for US-made capital goods rose slightly in March, with a downward revision for the prior month. This suggests business spending on equipment might stay weak in Q1.
Investors now set their sights on Friday’s release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets currently estimate a 70% chance of the first US rate cut by September.
Gold prices trade sideways as the market focuses on US economic data.
Recent comments from Fed officials indicate no immediate need for rate cuts, with traders now expecting the first one likely in September.
Concerns about Asian currency depreciation against the US dollar and potential actions by monetary authorities to curb further weakness dominate Asian markets as the Bank of Japan starts its two-day policy meeting.
The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar on Thursday, trading just outside its daily limit, as the Japanese yen’s continued decline dragged down regional currencies.
The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting on Friday, with all eyes on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments and overall tone. Ueda will likely strive to avoid a repeat of 2022, when his predecessor’s cautious remarks triggered a yen plunge, forcing Tokyo to intervene with an estimated $60 billion to defend the currency.
Asian stocks fell on Thursday as disappointing earnings forecasts from Meta Platforms, Facebook’s parent company, weighed on tech stocks. Additionally, the yen’s slide to over 155 yen per dollar for the first time since 1990 raised concerns about potential intervention from Tokyo.
Tesla stock surged 12% as investors seemed to overlook the company’s dismal earnings, focusing instead on Elon Musk’s promise to unveil cheaper models by early 2025. However, Tesla’s profits still plunged 55% to $1.1 billion.
Data from the EIA showed a 2.8% decline in US gasoline demand for the week ending April 19 compared to the previous week, and an 11% drop year-over-year. Distillate fuel demand also fell from the prior week and was down 4.7% compared to last year.
The decline in fuel demand coincides with signs of slowing US business activity in April. This, coupled with stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data, suggests the Fed might delay anticipated rate cuts, dampening economic sentiment.
Bitcoin failed to break above the $67,000 resistance level. After trimming gains, BTC now struggles to stay above the $63650 support zone.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2317.26
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2321.82, with a target price of 2328.25 and 2335.14. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2310.44, with a price target of 2303.99 and then 2296.64.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $82.71 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $82.92, targeting a price of $83.39, then 83.95. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $82.72, targeting a price of $81.72, then 81.13.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07093
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06942, targeting a price of 1.06782, then 1.06569. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07170, targeting a price of 1.07354, then 1.07579.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.24692
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.24397, targeting a price of 1.24199 then 1.23975. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.24733, targeting a price of 1.25019 then 1.25240.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17435
The first scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17522, targeting the price of 17591 then 17688. Alternative scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17398 with a price of 17336 then 17266.
Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- United States: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) – 3:30 PM CEST
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims – 3:30 PM CEST
Fundamental Analysis
Dollar Index Edges Lower Ahead of US GDP Data, Investors Eye PCE Price Index
The dollar index dipped around 105.8 on Thursday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of US first-quarter GDP data that could impact expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Markets also look to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further insights on price trends.
Recent data showed US durable goods orders topped forecasts in March, while S&P data indicated that US private sector growth started to slow last month.
Traders have now scaled back bets on Federal rate cuts this year but still see September as the potential start of an easing cycle.
The dollar maintained its recent declines against most major currencies.
Meanwhile, it rose to a 34-year high versus the Japanese yen as investors await policy cues from the Bank of Japan.
Gold prices remained stuck in a narrow range on Thursday as investors look to US economic data for more clarity on the Fed’s interest rate path.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as fuel demand weakened in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, amid signs of a slowing economy and concerns about an escalation of conflict in the key Middle East producing region.
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