Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held around 104.3 on Tuesday, its highest level in three weeks amid strong economic data, as traders weighed the potential impact of upcoming tariffs.

Gold falls as Trump eases tariff threats, Fed warns of rate cuts

Trump said on Monday that auto tariffs were coming soon, though he indicated that not all of the tariffs he threatened would be imposed on April 2 and that some countries might receive exemptions, a move Wall Street viewed as a sign of flexibility on an issue that has rocked markets for weeks.

*Gold bullion, seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, often thrives in a low interest rate environment.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bousik said he expects slower progress in inflation in the coming months, and as a result, he now sees the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate by only a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year.

Posetic expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, in line with his colleagues’ meeting last week, where the median forecast is for two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025.

Markets will then look to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due out on Friday.

Meanwhile, funds investing in gold mining companies are set to attract their largest monthly net inflows in more than a year in March, as record-high gold prices improve corporate earnings prospects and boost cash flows.

Oil steady as investors assess the impact of Trump’s tariffs, with Brent trading at $72.00 and WTI at $68.00.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate are steady after gains of more than 1% following Trump’s tariffs.

Trump says any country that buys Venezuelan oil will face a 25% tariff.

Demand concerns and rising OPEC+ supplies weigh heavily on the organization.

Both benchmark crude oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela’s main export, and China, already subject to US tariffs, is its largest buyer.

“Investors fear that Trump’s various tariffs will slow the economy and curb oil demand, but the prospect of tighter US sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil, which would limit supply, coupled with his rapid policy shifts, makes it difficult to take large positions,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, chief economist at NLI Research Institute.

“We expect WTI crude to remain around $70 for the rest of the year, with potential seasonal gains as the United States and other countries enter the driving season,” he added.

Last week, the United States imposed new sanctions aimed at hitting Iranian oil exports.

However, crude oil prices retreated from their session highs after the Trump administration on Monday also extended the deadline for US producer Chevron
to wind down operations in Venezuela to May 27.

Analysts at ANZ Bank wrote in a note that withdrawing Chevron’s operating license could reduce the country’s production by approximately 200,000 barrels per day.

Oil prices also came under pressure due to economic concerns amid escalating global trade tensions.

Trump also said that auto tariffs were coming soon, although he indicated that not all of the tariffs he threatened would be imposed on April 2 and that some countries might receive exemptions, a move Wall Street viewed as a sign of flexibility on an issue that has rocked markets for weeks.

Bitcoin price began a steady climb above $85,500. It is now correcting its gains from $88,750 and may find buying opportunities near $86,500.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3015.53

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3023.74, targeting 3032.77 and 3040.93.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3010.87, targeting 3003.86 and then 2996.71.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $68.86 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $68.60, targeting $68.24 and then $67.81.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $69.14 level, targeting $69.50 and then $69.85.

Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07942

First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.08137, targeting 1.08316 and then 1.08523.

Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.07885, targeting 1.07711 and then 1.07509.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

---

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29159

Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.29375, targeting 1.29551 and then 1.29750.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29084, targeting 1.28885 and then 1.28695.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20341

Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking and closing below 20240, targeting 20135 and then 20027.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20397, targeting 20516 and then 20624.

Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America: CB Consumer Confidence Index (March) 17:00
-From the United States of America: New Home Sales (February) 17:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held around 104.3 on Tuesday, its highest level in three weeks amid strong economic data, as traders weighed the potential impact of upcoming tariffs.

Data on Monday showed that U.S. business activity rebounded in March, with a sharp rebound in the services sector offsetting a renewed decline in industrial output.

However, business expectations for the coming year fell to their second-lowest level since October 2022, due to concerns about demand, tariffs, and broader policy shifts under the new administration.

Recent statements by President Donald Trump have raised hopes for a more targeted approach to tariffs, alleviating fears of widespread economic disruption.

But his pledge to impose tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and other industries added to market uncertainty.

The dollar held onto gains against most major currencies, strengthening most against the yen.

Gold prices fell slightly on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump eased concerns by announcing that not all of his proposed tariffs would take effect on April 2, while a Federal Reserve official signaled a cautious stance on interest rate cuts this year.

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as markets assessed the impact of new US tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil and the uncertain outlook for global demand.