Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose to around 106.7 on Tuesday, recovering from 11-week lows after President Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico would “go ahead” once a one-month delay period expires next week.

Gold falls on profit-taking, tariff concerns

Gold hits record high of $2,956.15 on Monday

Trump says Canada, Mexico tariffs on hold

Analysts say safe-haven demand remains strong

“It’s just a marginal decline in prices, but safe-haven demand remains strong due to uncertainty over tariffs,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.

Trump said Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports came “on time and on schedule” despite efforts by both countries to bolster border security and stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States before a March 4 deadline.

Market participants may return to pricing in tariff risks as the deadline for extended tariffs on Mexico and Canada approaches next week, said IG market strategist Yip Junrong.

Meanwhile, investors and economists expect the Federal Reserve to respond “aggressively and methodically” to changes in inflation and the labor market, according to research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

“This week’s Fed policymakers could deliver some hawkish rhetoric, but with market expectations already pointing to a prolonged hold on interest rates over the next two meetings, the impact on gold prices could be more contained,” Yip said.

Gold is considered a safe investment during economic and political uncertainty, and thrives in a low interest rate environment.

Investors are awaiting Friday’s release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights on the path of interest rate cuts.

Oil rises on supply concerns over Iran sanctions and strong refining margins, with Brent trading at $74.00 and WTI at $70.00

-Supply concerns due to new US sanctions on Iran

Analysts say strong global refining margins are providing support.

Uncertain demand outlook caps gains

“In the short term, I still think crude is looking for a base,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. “The new US sanctions on Iran announced overnight are likely to help, as is the Iraqi oil minister’s commitment to controlling oversupply.”

The United States on Monday imposed new sanctions on more than 30 brokers, tanker operators and shipping companies for their role in transporting Iranian oil. President Donald Trump has said he wants to cut Iran’s crude exports to zero.

Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumping 3.2 million barrels per day in January, according to a Reuters survey of OPEC production.

Some analysts say strong fuel demand in the West is also supporting oil markets at the moment.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports scheduled to take effect on March 4 “will be on time and on schedule” despite efforts by the two trading partners to address Trump’s concerns about border security and fentanyl. Analysts say the tariffs will weigh on global oil demand growth.

Bitcoin price has started to decline again below the $95,000 support level. Bitcoin price must remain above the $90,000 area to avoid further losses in the near term.

-Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $94,500 area. Bitcoin price is rising within a range and may revisit the $98,000 resistance area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2937.86

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2944.49, targeting 2953.52 and 2961.59

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2932.26. Targeting 2924.61 and then 2917.47

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $70.80 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $71.20 levels, targeting $71.56 and then $71.91.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $70.66 level, targeting $70.30 and then $69.87

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price:

1.04735 First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04841, targeting 1.05020 and then 1.05227

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04589, targeting 1.04415 and then 1.04213.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: .1.26302

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.26357 level, targeting the price of 1.26598 and then 1.26797.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.26130, targeting 1.25931 and then 1.25741

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21355

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21512 with a target price of 21623 then 21733

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21355 with target price of 21250 then 21142

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Germany German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 10:00
From USA CB Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose to around 106.7 on Tuesday, recovering from 11-week lows after President Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico would “go ahead” once a one-month delay period expires next week.

Hopes that the two countries would reach an agreement with the Trump administration to further delay the tariffs were dashed by Trump’s comments, prompting markets to adjust their expectations.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming PCE price index report and the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth, which could provide further clarity on the future direction of monetary policy.

Last week, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index showed an unexpected contraction in the services sector, despite strong growth in manufacturing.

Moreover, US consumer confidence has declined, due to concerns about ongoing inflation.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as investors booked profits after the metal hit a record high on safe-haven demand amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could stoke inflation and ignite a major global trade war.

Oil prices rose for a second day on Tuesday, as concerns grew that supplies could be squeezed by new U.S. sanctions on Iran and as global refining margins remained strong.