Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Thursday after witnessing sharp fluctuations in recent sessions, as investors eye the fourth-quarter GDP report due later today which could provide clues on the path of US interest rates.

• Gold is hovering near its lowest level in a week due to the strength of the dollar, US data and the European Central Bank under the microscope.
• The US fourth-quarter GDP advance estimate is scheduled to be released on this day.

• The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision is scheduled for today.

• Tesla Q4 23 earnings: EPS $0.71 (estimated $0.73) Value $25.17 billion (estimated $25.87 billion).

• IBM Q4 Earnings 23: Average EPS $3.87 (US$3.76) Value $17.38 Billion (approximately $17.29 Billion)
• Today, investors are awaiting the quarterly earnings report of companies, the most important of which are Visa, Intel, and others.
• Oil rises with the withdrawal of US crude inventories and hopes of Chinese stimulus, with Brent crude trading at $80.00 levels and West Texas Intermediate crude at $75.00 levels.
• Bitcoin price started an upward correction from the $38,500 support area. BTC could gain upward momentum if it crosses the $40,500 resistance area.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time Indicator: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2015.69

First scenario: Sell the asset and hold below 2012.02, targeting prices of 2005.57 and 1998.21.

Alternative scenario: Buy the asset and hold to 2020.25, targeting prices of 2025.31 and then 2032.25.

Conclusion: Trading below resistance and averages suggests downward movement.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 75.32 USD per barrel

First scenario: Buy the asset and hold with closing candle to levels of 75.61 USD, targeting prices of 76.08 USD then 76.65 USD.

Alternative scenario: Sell the asset at 74.94 USD, targeting prices of 74.41 USD then 73.83 USD.

Conclusion: Trading above the supports and averages suggests upward movement.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08890

First scenario: Sell EUR/USD below 1.08663, targeting prices of 1.08503 then 1.08290.

Alternative scenario: Buy EUR/USD and hold with closing candle to 1.08890, targeting prices of 1.09075 then 1.09299.

Conclusion: Trading below the supports and averages suggests downward movement.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27241

Scenario 1: Sell GBP/USD below 1.26996, targeting prices of 1.26798 then 1.26574

Scenario 2: Buy GBP/USD and hold above 1.27332, targeting prices of 1.27618 then 1.27839

Conclusion: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a downward trend

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward

Time frame: Half hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17,622

Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq index and hold above 17,639, targeting prices of 17,678 then 17,725.

Scenario 2: Sell the Nasdaq index and hold below 17,580, targeting prices of 17,538 then 17,495.

Conclusion: Trading above the resistances and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision (January) will be released at 16:00.

• From the United States, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release durable goods orders (excluding transportation) (December) at 16:00.

• From the United States, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the fourth-quarter GDP at 16:30.

• From the United States, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the weekly unemployment claims report at 16:00.

• From Europe, the European Central Bank will hold a press conference at 16:45.

• From the United States, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release new home sales (December) at 18:00.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The US dollar index stabilized around 103.5 on Thursday after experiencing sharp volatility in recent sessions, as investors look ahead to the fourth-quarter GDP report due to be released later today, which is expected to provide clues on the path of US interest rates.

• The markets are also looking ahead to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data in the United States on Friday, which is the preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve.

• Data released on Wednesday showed that US business activity grew more than expected in January, with both services and manufacturing activity expanding.

• It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next week, but traders will be focused on the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for hints about the start of a tightening cycle.

• On the other hand, it is also widely expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain on hold at its meeting later today, while the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced unexpectedly late on Wednesday that it will cut reserve requirement ratios for banks next month in an effort to support the struggling Chinese economy.

• Gold prices held near a one-week low on Thursday, pressured by rising US dollar and rising bond yields after strong business activity data, while investors awaited the release of US GDP data and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later today.

• Oil prices rose on Thursday after data showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, while the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) cut in reserve requirement ratios boosted hopes for further stimulus and economic recovery.