enDaily Analysis 24/06/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index settled around 105.8 on Monday, hovering at its highest levels in nearly two months as strong US business data fueled fears that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for longer.
-Gold rises as bond yields decline; US inflation data in focus
Bullion lost more than 1% on Friday, and business activity in the United States crept to its highest level in 26 months in June, and US personal consumption expenditures data is scheduled to be released on Friday.
– Standard US Treasury bond yields for 10 years and the yellow metal fell, making the yellow metal, which does not generate a return, more attractive to investors.
“Friday night saw very heavy selling due to the strength of the US dollar,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial expert. “Gold has been somewhat affected by this, although the markets are somewhat heading towards two rate cuts this year.”
-US business activity rose to its highest level in 26 months in June amid a rebound in hiring, pushing the dollar to its highest level in nearly eight weeks. The rise in the dollar increases the cost of the yellow metal to holders of other currencies.
-Traders are looking to the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – due on Friday for further signals on the timing and size of interest rate cuts.
-If we continue to see PCE falling, this could confirm that the Fed is in a position to cut interest rates twice this year. If we get that, it will be somewhat positive for gold. “
-Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
-There are at least five Fed officials speaking this week, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michael Bowman.
-Asian stocks fell on Monday amid the countdown to US price data that investors rely on to show a renewed moderation in inflation, while markets were alert for Japanese intervention as the dollar tested the 160 yen barrier.
-Oil declines as commodity markets are affected by the strength of the dollar, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $81.00.
Both standard crude oil contracts rose by about 3% last week amid signs of increased demand for petroleum products in the United States, the world’s largest consumer, and with OPEC+ cuts continuing to control supplies.
– Analysts said that US crude inventories fell while gasoline demand rose for the seventh week in a row and jet fuel consumption returned to 2019 levels.
-Bitcoin price began another decline after struggling near $64,550. BTC fell below the $63,500 support level and may continue to move lower.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2324.07
The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2318.74, with a target price of 2312.29 and 2306.06.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2330.12, targeting the price of 2336.55 and then 2343.68.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $80.52 per barrel
The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $80.76, targeting a price of $81.23, then 81.79.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $80.08 level, targeting $79.56, then 78.98.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07052
The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06895, targeting a price of 1.06735, then 1.06522.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.07122, targeting the price of 1.07307 then 1.07531.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26499
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26248, targeting the price of 1.26051 then 1.25827.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.26584, targeting the price of 1.26870 then 1.27092.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20002
The first scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 20029, targeting a price of 20099 then 20179.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 19927, price of 19870, then 19819.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-Speech by Governor of the Central Bank of Canada, 20:45
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index settled around 105.8 on Monday, hovering at its highest levels in nearly two months as strong US business data fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for longer.
The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts also differed from the recent policy of other major central banks, with the Swiss central bank, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada already beginning to ease monetary policy.
U.S. private sector activity saw its fastest growth in 26 months in June, S&P Global data showed, signaling a strong end to the second quarter.
The services sector led this upward trend supported by the manufacturing sector, although the latter’s recent recovery has lost some momentum.
Investors are now looking to the Fed’s preferred measure of personal consumption expenditures inflation and new comments from Fed officials this week to further guide expectations.
The dollar strengthened across the board, rising toward 34-year highs against the yen on the Bank of Japan’s refusal to tighten policy too quickly.
Gold prices rose on Monday as Treasury yields fell, while investors awaited key US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials during the week for new clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts from the central bank.
Oil prices fell on Monday as fears of higher interest rates for a longer period resurfaced and lifted the dollar, offsetting the support oil markets received from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts.
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