enDaily Analysis 24/05/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose about 105 points on Friday and is heading for a weekly gain with the release of stronger-than-expected US economic data that reduces bets on a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) this year.
Standard & Poor’s data showed that US business activity accelerated to its highest level in more than two years in May, while the latest weekly unemployment claims fell more than expected.
-Gold is heading towards the largest weekly decline in more than five months
-The metal recorded its lowest levels since May 9 earlier in the session
– Buying Chinese reserves to keep gold’s losses limited
-Silver, platinum and palladium are preparing for a weekly decline
Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomics at Tastylive, said: “The hawkish tone in the minutes of the Fed’s May policy meeting indicating the inability of policymakers to cut interest rates with confidence… sent Treasury yields and the dollar higher, and metals appear to have… “I noticed that.” .
Gold is known as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of owning gold that does not generate a return.
While the policy response for now will “include maintaining” the US central bank’s benchmark interest rate at its current level, the minutes released on Wednesday also reflect discussions about possible further rises.
-Traders’ bets indicated growing doubts that the Fed will cut interest rates more than once in 2024. (FEDWATCH)
Spivak noted that “the purchase of Chinese reserves remains a noticeable auxiliary force in general.” “The pace of take-up slowed to 9% year-on-year in April from 11% at the end of 2023, but the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) remains a major exporter.” of demand and this may keep losses limited for the time being.”
-: Nvidia shares rise above $1,000 as record AI chip sales beat revenue expectations
Oil stabilized as investors assessed US interest rate concerns and the stability of seasonal demand, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $76.00.
The two benchmarks settled at their lowest levels in several months on Thursday, with Brent crude futures closing at their weakest point since January, and US crude futures recording their lowest level in three months.
-“Weak demand sentiment due to the Fed’s hawkish outlook on interest rates and the backdrop of ‘the possibility of higher interest rates for a longer period’ greatly impacted oil prices this week.”
-Bitcoin price continued its losses and was trading below the support level of $68,800. BTC is now consolidating and is facing hurdles near the $70,000 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2336.01
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2342.27, with a target price of 2348.70 and 2355.83.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2330.89, with a target price of 2324.44 and then 2318.21.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.70 per barrel
The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $76.57 level, targeting a price of $76.05, then 75.47. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $77.25 level, targeting a price of $77.72, then 78.29.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08146
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08217, targeting the price of 1.08401, then 1.08626.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle below 1.07990, targeting the price of 1.07830 then 1.07917.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26925
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.27039, targeting the price of 1.27325, then 1.27546.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26703, targeting the price of 1.26505 then 1.26281.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18701
The first scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close below 18660, targeting the price of 18603 then 18552.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing at the highest level of 18762, price of 18832, then 18912.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no important economic data
Fundamental Analysis
Minutes from a recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting also showed that policymakers are concerned about stubborn inflation and some members have indicated a willingness to tighten policy further if inflation rises.
Markets are now pricing in only one rate cut this year, and have pushed back the date of the first rate cut to December.
The US durable goods report for April and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May due on Friday will be closely watched for further guidance.
The dollar strengthened across the board and rose to a three-week high against the yen as inflation in Japan slowed further in April.
Gold prices hit their lowest levels in two weeks on Friday, on track to suffer their biggest weekly loss in more than five months, as expectations for a cut in interest rates began to decline after a hawkish tone in the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.
Oil prices stabilized on Friday as investors took into account the Federal Reserve’s latest comments on interest rates amid steady inflation, while signs of increased seasonal demand for fuel in the United States received support.
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