enDaily Analysis 24/03/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index held above 104 on Monday as investors awaited more clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies before the April 2 deadline for his tit-for-tat tariffs.
Gold rises on safe-haven demand and Federal Reserve optimism.
Gold hit a record high of $3,057.21 per ounce last Thursday as trade tensions fueled safe-haven demand. Zero-yield gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, economic uncertainty, and inflation.
Tariffs will remain in the spotlight as Trump announces a wave of tit-for-tat tariffs that will take effect on April 2, likely fueling inflation and hampering economic growth.
Last week, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 4.25%-4.50%, as expected. Policymakers expect the U.S. central bank to make two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year.
However, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy is in place given the many uncertainties facing the economy, indicating that there is no urgent need to make any changes to interest rates.
On the physical front, gold discounts in India hit their highest level in more than eight months last week as demand slumped after spot prices hit record highs.
Oil prices stabilize as investors monitor ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and WTI at $67.00.
Oil prices rose on Friday, posting gains for the second consecutive week, as new US sanctions on Iran and the latest OPEC+ production plan raised expectations of tighter supplies.
A US delegation will seek progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of violence in the war in Ukraine when it meets for talks with Russian officials on Monday, following discussions with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday.
“Expectations of progress in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility of easing US sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices, pushing them down,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
He added, “Investors are reluctant to hold large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.”
OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia – on Thursday issued a new schedule for seven member countries to implement further oil production cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels. This will go beyond the monthly production increases the group plans to implement next month.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range, consolidating below $85,000 and holding above the $81,000 support area. Optimists are making efforts to reclaim higher levels and stimulate a recovery wave, but persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and growing concerns about global trade tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3023.06
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3028.24, targeting 3037.27 and 3045.43.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3015.37, targeting 3008.36 and then 3001.21.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.98 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below $67.91, targeting $67.43 and then $67.00.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil after breaking the $68.34 level, targeting $68.70 and then $69.05.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08278
First scenario: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.08427, targeting 1.08606 and then 1.08813.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.08175, targeting 1.08001 and then 1.07799.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29263
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.29439, targeting 1.29615 and then 1.29814.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.29147, targeting 1.28949 and then 1.28759.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20106
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 20026, targeting 19921 and then 19813.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20183, targeting 20302 and then 20410.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (March) 16:45
-From the United States of America: Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (March) 16:45
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held above 104 on Monday as investors awaited more clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies before the April 2 deadline for his tit-for-tat tariffs.
Trump indicated on Friday that there may be “flexibility” in the plan, while reports over the weekend indicated that the tariffs may be narrower, potentially sparing some industries.
The dollar has been under pressure for most of the year, as tariffs are expected to impact US economic growth.
However, prices rebounded last week after the Federal Reserve confirmed it was in no rush to cut interest rates further, despite indicating it could cut interest rates twice more later this year.
Against major currencies, the dollar rose against the Australian dollar, the yen, and the yuan, while it was stable against the euro, the British pound, and the New Zealand dollar.
Gold rose slightly on Monday as growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s planned tariff hikes and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year bolstered the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Oil prices steadied on Monday as investors assessed prospects for ceasefire talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to increased Russian oil supplies to global markets.
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