enDaily Analysis 24/01/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
-Dollar heads for sharp weekly decline
The dollar index fell below 108 on Friday and is expected to fall more than 1% during the week.
Gold rises to 3-month high after Trump comments on interest rates, tariffs
Gold on track to hit $3,000, analyst says
-All metals set for weekly gains
-Dollar heads for weekly decline
-Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 17-year high
“The dollar fell after Trump spoke against market expectations,” said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities. “This decline comes after he refrained from implementing aggressive tariffs after his inauguration.”
Trump called for an immediate interest rate cut and offered no clarity on the tariffs. The lack of clarity on his future policies has led market participants to rush to safe assets such as gold to hedge against volatility.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to their highest levels since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled to issue their interest rate decisions next week.
Traders see little chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates are denting the appeal of non-yielding gold.
“Gold remains bullish and that means we are still on track to hit $3,000 this year,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital.com.
Oil is heading for its worst week in eight, with Brent trading at $78.00 and WTI at $74.00.
Speaking at the Davos forum on Thursday, Trump announced plans to urge Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, in line with his administration’s energy development priorities.
This added to the market’s pessimism, as traders remained cautious about the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on global economic growth and energy demand.
On the supply side, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels last week, marking a ninth straight decline and falling below the five-year seasonal average, contrary to an earlier industry report that had forecast an increase in inventories.
Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories fell sharply, while gasoline inventories continued to rise.
Bitcoin price stabilized above the $100,500 resistance area. Bitcoin is consolidating its gains and may target a fresh high above the $105,000 area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2773.50
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2780.30, targeting 2786.73 and 2793.86
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2768.92. Target price 2762.47 and then 2754.63
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.40 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $74.13 level, targeting $73.61 and then $73.03.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $74.98, targeting $75.28 and then $75.84
Comment: Trading below resistance and averages suggests a decline
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04489
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.04676, targeting 1.04860 and then 1.05085
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.04448, targeting 1.04288 and then 1.04075.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.23766
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.23717, targeting the price of 1.23477 and then 1.23255
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.24018, targeting 1.24258 and then 1.24545.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21990
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 22081, targeting 22184 then 22302
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21924 with target price of 21799 then 21692
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision 6:20
-From USA: Manufacturing PMI 17:45
-From USA: Services PMI 17:45
-From USA: Existing Home Sales (December) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 108 on Friday and is expected to fall more than 1% during the week.
The decline comes as President Donald Trump has refrained from imposing aggressive tariffs after his inauguration, contrary to market expectations.
In his speech to the World Economic Forum, Trump also called for an immediate reduction in interest rates, and reiterated his commitment to lower taxes on U.S.-based manufacturers, while promising to impose tariffs on companies that produce abroad.
Despite Trump’s comments, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week.
Market expectations now favor a rate cut in July, with another cut possible later in the year.
The dollar was broadly weak, with the most selling pressure seen against the Australian currency.
Gold prices hit their highest in nearly three months on Friday, heading for a fourth straight weekly gain, supported by uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and calls for lower interest rates, which weighed on the dollar.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell about $74 a barrel on Friday, their sixth straight decline and on track for their worst week since November, after President Trump called for lower crude prices.
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