Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index rose above 104.1 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since early August as investors continued to scale back bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as they prepare for the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Safe-haven gold hits all-time high amid global uncertainty

Markets continued to monitor diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, with investors still fearing a wider conflict in the region as Israel continues its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.

The approaching US election has boosted demand for safe-haven assets, as both presidential candidates remain in a close race.

Moreover, the enhanced demand was supported by monetary easing by major central banks, following recent cuts in key interest rates by the People’s Bank of China and the European Central Bank. At the same time, expectations of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have diminished following a series of positive economic data.

-Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, global gold prices have soared to record highs so far this year, posting their biggest gains in 45 years. Silver has also hit new highs and is seeing its biggest jump in four years.

Global gold prices have risen more than 32.5% this year, their highest since 1979, while silver prices have surged 37.5%. Locally, gold prices on the MCX exchange have risen 23.6% and silver 32.9% – their biggest gains since 2020.

The shift in momentum towards Donald Trump’s presidency has been a focus for investors, as Trump’s policies including tariffs and restrictions on illegal immigration are expected to fuel inflation. This in turn has supported the dollar on expectations that US interest rates may remain relatively high for longer than expected.

– The odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, have recently increased on betting sites, although opinion polls show the race for the White House is still too close to call.

Oil falls due to the rise in US inventories, with Brent crude trading at $73.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $69.00.

– Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, more than double the expected increase of 0.7 million barrels.

However, gasoline and distillate fuel inventories declined during this period.

Meanwhile, markets are closely watching diplomatic efforts in the Middle East as Israel continues its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, recent stimulus measures by China, including a cut in benchmark lending rates, have provided some support to oil prices.

However, concerns remain about the long-term outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

-In addition, there are still concerns that the global oil market may turn into a surplus in the coming quarters, while expectations of a cut in interest rates in the United States have declined.

-Bitcoin price started a downside correction and tested the $66,500 area. Bitcoin price is now stabilizing and may target a fresh increase above $67,800.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2750.10

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2752.64, targeting 2759.07 and 2766.20

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2741.26 with a target price of 2734.81 and then 2726.97

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $71.55 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.80 level, targeting $72.72 and then $72.83.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $71.12 levels, targeting $70.60 and then $70.01.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price:

1.08032 First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.07865, targeting 1.07705 and then 1.07492

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08087, targeting 1.08277 and then 1.08501.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29912

Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.29726 level, targeting the price of 1.29485 and then 1.29263

Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30026 with a target price of 1.30266 then 1.30553

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20519

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20618, targeting 20722 then 20840

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20462 with a target price of 20337 then 20230

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision 16:45
-From USA: Existing Home Sales (September) 17:00
-US Crude Oil Inventory 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 104.1 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since early August as investors continued to scale back bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as they prepare for the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The US dollar also tracked higher Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note yield hitting 4.22% for the first time since late July amid strong economic data and deficit concerns.

Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November after delivering a massive 50 basis point cut in September.

Investors are now looking ahead to the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book summary of economic conditions on Wednesday for updates on the central bank’s economic outlook.

The dollar held steady at multi-month highs against other major currencies, with the most buying activity seen against the yen.

Gold fell below $2,740 an ounce on Wednesday, but remained close to an all-time high, supported by its safe-haven status amid heightened geopolitical risks and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell about $71 a barrel on Wednesday, giving up gains from the previous session, pressured by a larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories.