Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady around 100.8 on Monday after seeing increased volatility last week, as investors cautiously awaited more economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for fresh insights on the path of interest rates.

Gold hovers above $2,600

The US Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut in four years on Wednesday, cutting rates by 50 basis points, and expects the benchmark interest rate to fall by an additional half a percentage point by the end of the year.

Markets are now looking ahead to a slew of economic data this week, including personal consumption expenditures, personal income and spending reports, and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further guidance on interest rate expectations.

Meanwhile, gold’s safe-haven status was boosted by escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel and Hezbollah intensifying cross-border attacks on Sunday, with leaders trading hostile threats amid a rapidly deteriorating situation.

Key points driving gold higher Gold prices hit new record highs, central bank buying ramps up. Lower interest rates help support gold prices.

Gold rose in early Asian trading after hitting a fresh record high on Friday. The precious metal may be poised to take some gains. However, the analyst said the outlook for gold for the rest of 2024 remains modestly bullish, citing his long-term target of $3,000 an ounce.

This is due to expectations that major central banks may accelerate interest rate cuts, while factors such as geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases are a positive phase.

Global stocks rose in Asia on Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely expected to yield two more interest rate cuts and key U.S. inflation figures that could give the green light for more easing there.

Oil rises on fears of escalation in the Middle East and the US interest rate cut, with Brent crude trading at $74.00 and West Texas crude at $71.00.

Crude oil futures rose in the previous session, supported by lower U.S. interest rates and lower U.S. supply in the wake of Hurricane Francine. Oil prices rose last week for the second straight week.

More moderate economic expectations from major consumers in China and the United States limited further gains.

“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated one notch between Israel and Hezbollah, which could leave oil prices well supported by the risk of a wider regional conflict,” said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.

“However, price gains were somewhat more conservative, which may reflect some reservations about the actual impact on oil supplies, given that the conflict in the Middle East has been ongoing for some time now with little disruption so far.”

Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group based in Lebanon, and Israel exchanged heavy fire on Sunday, with the group firing rockets deep into northern Israel after facing some of the heaviest bombardment in nearly a year of conflict.

The conflict escalated sharply last week after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members exploded. Israel was widely blamed for the attack, but Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.

While crude oil prices rose more than 4% last week on the back of interest rate cuts in the United States, weak demand sentiment in China, the largest oil importer, is capping the rally, Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova, said in a note.

-Bitcoin price gained momentum above the $62,500 resistance level. Bitcoin even surpassed the $63,200 level and is now consolidating its gains above the $63,500 level.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2627.12

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2635.20, targeting 2641.63 and 2648.76

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2623.82 with a target price of 2617.37 and then 2609.54

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $71.21 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.69 level, targeting $72.16 and then $72.73.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $71.80 levels, targeting $70.49 and then $69.91

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.11575

Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.11735, targeting 1.11919 and then 1.2144.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11507, targeting 1.11347 and then 1.11134

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

 

---

GBPUSD

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.33155

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.33372, targeting the price of 1.33613 and then 1.33899.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.33072, targeting 1.32831 and then 1.32609.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20098

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20196, targeting 20300 then 20418

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20040 with target price 19915 then 19808

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Japan – Autumnal Equinox Holiday

From USA Manufacturing PMI (September) 16:45

From USA Services PMI (September) 16:45

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 100.8 on Monday after seeing increased volatility last week, as investors cautiously await more economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for fresh insights on the path of interest rates.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday for the first time in four years, citing confidence that inflation is returning to 2% and rising labor market risks.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell said the central bank is in no rush to ease policy and that half-percentage-point cuts are not “the new pace.” Investors now look ahead to U.S. manufacturing and services PMI data on Monday, as well as personal consumption expenditures, personal income and personal spending reports later in the week.

Also scheduled to speak are central bankers including Atlanta Fed President Busick, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari.

Gold held steady around $2,620 an ounce on Monday, holding at fresh record highs after breaching $2,600 last week, as expectations of further interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions boosted bullion’s appeal.

Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East could tighten regional supply and expectations that last week’s aggressive U.S. interest rate cut will support demand.