Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is heading for a weekly drop, trading around 101.8 on Friday, but still on course for its second week of losses, as the market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates next year.
• Gold is close to a three-week high as bets on Fed rate cuts increase, and US inflation data is awaited.
• Gold is set to rise for another week.
• U.S. core personal consumption expenditures data will be released today.
• Oil keeps its weekly gains, up 1% as the Red Sea tensions persist. Brent crude is trading at $80.00 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $74.50 a barrel.
• Asian stocks are moving to weekly losses before inflation data.
• Third-quarter GDP final at 4.9% vs. forecasts of 5.2%.
• Initial jobless claims 205K vs. forecasts of 215K.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 3.84%.
• BlackRock names third-party to buy bitcoin, and analysts await ETF approvals on January 10.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,047.14

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,052.29, targeting a price of $2,057.34 and then $2,064.29.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,031.41, targeting a price of $2,024.97 and then $2,017.61.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $74.53 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $74.83, targeting a price of $75.30 and then $75.86.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $74.15, targeting a price of $73.63 and then $73.04.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09981

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09927, targeting a price of $1.09767 and then $1.09554.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10155, targeting a price of $1.10339 and then $1.10564.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26859

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26714, targeting a price of $1.26517 and then $1.26293.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27050, targeting a price of $1.27336 and then $1.27557.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,899

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,881, targeting a price of $16,840 and then $16,796.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,941, targeting a price of $16,980 and then $17,026.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• New Zealand and the United Kingdom are closed for Christmas.
• UK GDP (annually) (Q3) at 10:00.
• US Building Permits Index at 16:30.
• US Durable Goods Orders (excluding transportation) (monthly) (November) at 16:30.
• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (annually) (November) at 16:30.
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (monthly) (November) at 16:30.
• US New Home Sales (November) at 18:00.
• Canada’s General Government Budget (annually) (October) at 19:00.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index stayed around 101.8 on Friday, but was still heading for its second week of losses, as the market anticipated the Fed would start cutting interest rates next year.
• Data on Thursday showed that U.S. economic growth was weaker than previously reported in the third quarter, while the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week.
• Investors are now waiting for the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures data on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, for more clues on monetary policy expectations.
• The core personal consumption expenditures index is forecast to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, while the annual rate is expected to drop to 3.3%, its lowest since 2021.
• Gold prices hit a three-week high on Friday, as rising bets that the Fed would cut interest rates early next year pushed the dollar and bond yields lower before the U.S. inflation data.
• Oil prices climbed up to 1% on Friday as the Middle East tensions persisted after Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, even as Angola’s decision to quit OPEC raised doubts about how effective the group would be in supporting prices.