enDaily Analysis 22/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
-Dollar holds near two-year high
The dollar index held above 107 on Friday, holding near two-year highs as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Gold set for strong weekly performance
Earlier this week, Ukraine fired its second Western-supplied missile at Russia, while Kyiv’s air force reported that Russia fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine on Thursday in response.
Meanwhile, markets continued to assess the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook after US jobless claims unexpectedly fell, adding to speculation about a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the US central bank.
Traders also watched comments from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who indicated that interest rates could move “to a somewhat lower level” and expressed confidence that inflation is moving back toward target.
Most markets still expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.
Global stock markets rose in volatile trading on Thursday as investors digested a lackluster revenue outlook from chipmaker Nvidia and bitcoin edged closer to the $100,000 mark.
Oil is heading for weekly gains, with Brent crude trading at $74.00 and WTI at $70.00.
Oil rises amid fears of escalation of war between Russia and Ukraine
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading. An escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine is pushing prices higher after renewed tensions, raising concerns about a potential supply disruption.
Prices are also supported by signs of renewed demand, with U.S. Energy Information Administration data showing exports have been at a record high in recent weeks, and refined product premiums over crude rising to multi-month highs.
Earlier this week, Ukraine fired its second Western-supplied missile at Russia, while Kyiv’s air force said Russia fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine on Thursday in response to the attack.
Meanwhile, markets are closely watching the OPEC+ meeting on December 1, amid speculation that production increases may be delayed again.
The producer group had been planning gradual increases in production for 2024 and 2025, as of last October, but slowing global demand has recently delayed the plan.
This comes at a time when China, one of the largest importers, is still suffering from weak economic growth and low demand.
-Bitcoin price is steadily rising above the $95,000 area. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and is trading around $99,000 and may soon reach the $100,000 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2692.93
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2695.30, targeting 2701.73 and then 2708.86
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2683.92 with a target price of 2677.47 and 2669.64
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.21 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $70.51 level, targeting $70.98 and then $71.55.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $69.84 levels, targeting $69.31 and then $68.73
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.04721
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.04582, targeting 1.04422 and then 1.04209.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.04809, targeting 1.04994 and then 1.05218.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25685
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.25470 level, targeting the price of 1.25230 and then 1.25008
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.25771, targeting 1.26011 and then 1.26298.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20807
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20849, targeting 20952 then 21070
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20694 with a target price of 20567 then 20460
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA Manufacturing PMI (November) 17:45
From USA Services PMI (November) 17:45
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above 107 on Friday, holding near two-year highs as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Initial weekly claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, data released Thursday showed, providing further evidence of a strong labor market.
Investors are awaiting business activity data later today and inflation figures next week for additional economic insights.
Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December, with some traders betting on a pause.
The dollar was also supported by expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies – particularly on tariffs, immigration and taxes – could reignite inflation and limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, the euro and yuan took a hit as Europe and China grappled with the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Gold rose to $2,680 an ounce on Friday, up for a fifth straight session, and is on track to gain about 5% this week, as investors shift to safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose above $70 a barrel on Friday, heading for their best week in two months, driven by a rise in geopolitical risk premiums amid escalating hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.
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