enDaily Analysis 22/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, snapping two days of gains as markets reacted to news that President Joe Biden has ended his re-election bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Investors were looking ahead to the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 17-18 meeting to begin cutting interest rates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell said would mark a “significant” shift in policy from a pandemic-era battle against inflation to a phase of monetary easing. (FEDWATCH)
Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Markets will focus on Friday’s U.S. PCE data. Other releases include existing home sales, S&P Global’s preliminary July purchasing managers’ indexes, second-quarter gross domestic product and weekly jobless claims.
Asian demand for physical gold was sluggish last week, reflecting a reluctance by customers to make new purchases despite deep discounts, and instead taking advantage of record high bullion prices.
On the political front, US President Joe Biden on Sunday abandoned his faltering re-election bid under increasing pressure from fellow Democrats, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the party’s nominee to face Republican Donald Trump in the November election.
Asian stocks extended recent losses on Monday, receiving little support from a surprise interest rate cut by China’s central bank, while Wall Street futures rose following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the election race.
Australian shares fell for a third straight session on Monday, with mining and energy stocks leading the decline, while concerns about an early interest rate hike also weighed on the market.
Oil is hovering near five-week lows, with Brent trading at $82.00 and WTI at $78.00.
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that a long-awaited truce between Israel and Hamas was close.
This, coupled with a stronger dollar, a broad sell-off in risk assets, and concerns about China’s economic outlook, has added pressure on oil prices.
However, short-term supply concerns are limiting losses, as reports show that wildfires in Canada are threatening oil production again.
Moreover, there are hopes that the US interest rate cutting cycle will start as early as September.
Meanwhile, investors are assessing the impact of President Joe Biden ending his re-election campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
-Bitcoin price rose after breaking the resistance level of $67,500. Bitcoin price recorded a rise above $70,000 and may continue to rise in the short term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2404.97
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2413.54, targeting 2419.97 and 2427.10
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2413.58, targeting 2402.16 and then 2389.48
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.66 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $78.66 levels, targeting $78.41 and then $77.30.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $79.09 level, targeting $79.56 and then $80.12.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08846
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.09008, targeting 1.091193 and then 1.09417
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.08781, targeting 1.08621 and then 1.08408.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29133
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.29383 level, targeting the price of 1.29669 and then 1.29890.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.29047, targeting 1.28850 and then 1.28626
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19746
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19722, targeting a price of 19665 and then 19614.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with break and hold with close above 20006 price 20075 then 20156
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no important events scheduled for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, snapping two days of gains as markets reacted to news that President Joe Biden has ended his re-election bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Analysts said Biden’s withdrawal was likely to have little impact on markets as former President Donald Trump remains the favorite to win in November.
The dollar rose last week after strong US economic data provided some support.
However, the index has remained down about 1.5% so far in July, as slowing inflation has boosted bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Markets also expect two more cuts before the end of the year.
Investors are now looking ahead to key US economic reports this week including the PCE price index, preliminary PMIs and Q2 GDP figures.
Gold prices rose slightly on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut, while attention turned to economic data for more insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled near $79 a barrel on Monday, remaining close to their lowest since mid-June and after falling more than 3 percent in the previous session, on renewed optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza.
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