enDaily Analysis 22/04/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index traded around 98.4 on Tuesday after hitting a three-year low in the previous session, as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential economic fallout from the global trade war weighed on the currency.
Gold sets a new record
President Trump renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday, suggesting he could be fired and warning that the US economy could slow down unless interest rates are cut immediately.
These statements raised concerns about the politicization of US monetary policy, which could undermine the Federal Reserve’s credibility and erode investor confidence in the economy.
This has exacerbated ongoing concerns about global trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China.
Trump’s investigation into tariffs on critical metals last week, which could impact relations with major suppliers like China, could further strain relations between the two powers.
So far, gold has gained over 30% this year.
Oil prices rise on short-covering, but tariff concerns persist, with Brent crude trading at $66.00 and WTI at $62.00.
Economic concerns persist over tariffs and US monetary policy.
Signs of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks ease supply concerns
Polls show that US crude oil inventories may have fallen last week.
Both benchmark crudes fell more than 2% on Monday, as signs of progress in the nuclear deal talks between the United States and Iran helped ease supply concerns.
“There was some short-covering after Monday’s sharp sell-off,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.
He added that “concerns about a potential recession resulting from the tariff war remain,” expecting West Texas Intermediate crude to trade in the $55-$65 range for now given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.
US President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday, saying the US economy could slow down unless interest rates are cut immediately.
His comments on Powell raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence in setting monetary policy and the outlook for US assets. Major US stock indices declined, and the dollar index fell to a three-year low on Monday.
Bitcoin price is moving upward, surpassing the $87,500 level. Bitcoin is gaining momentum and may continue to rise above $88,800 in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3479.52
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3493.41, targeting 3502.44 and 3510.60.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3478.08, targeting 3471.07 and then 3463.92.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $62.96 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $63.15, targeting $63.51 and then $63.86.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $62.60 level, targeting $62.24 and then $61.81.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.14997
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.15395, targeting 1.15656 and then 1.15862.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.14972, targeting 1.14798 and then 1.14596.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33892
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.34123, targeting 1.34300 and then 1.34498.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.33832, targeting 1.33633 and then 1.33443.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18104
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and close above 18153, targeting 18272 and then 18380.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 17996, targeting 17891 and then 17783.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no important events today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index traded around 98.4 on Tuesday after hitting a three-year low in the previous session, as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential economic fallout from the global trade war weighed on the currency.
US President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates immediately to avoid an economic slowdown, taking aim at Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who wants to wait for the impact of tariffs on inflation.
The White House has raised the possibility of Powell’s dismissal, raising concerns about the politicization of US monetary policy, which could undermine the Federal Reserve’s credibility and erode investor confidence in the dollar.
Meanwhile, markets were disappointed by the lack of progress in trade talks, with China accusing the United States of abusing tariffs and warning other countries against striking a deal with Washington at its expense.
The dollar has fallen by about 6% this month, with the largest losses against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc.
Gold jumped above $3,450 an ounce on Tuesday, hitting a new record high, driven by risk aversion amid growing economic uncertainty.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors pared the previous day’s losses to cover short positions, despite lingering concerns about economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs and monetary policy that could dampen fuel demand.
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