Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index surged to a three-week high near 104.2 on Friday and is on track for a second straight week of gains, fueled by bets that other major central banks might start cutting interest rates before the Federal Reserve.

• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate, citing the strength of the franc.
• The Bank of England (BoE) also softened its stance, with two previously hawkish officials now supporting a hold decision.
• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) shifted away from negative interest rates and ended yield curve control, but is expected to remain accommodative for now.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady and maintained its forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• Fed officials emphasized the need for more certainty that inflation is sustainably declining towards 2% before lowering rates.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that recent high inflation readings haven’t altered the underlying narrative of gradually easing price pressures in the United States.

Gold prices dipped as the dollar strengthened thanks to the Fed-led rally.

• Gold is up 0.8% so far this week.
• The Fed still anticipates three rate cuts in 2024.
• Silver, platinum, and palladium are poised for weekly declines.

Oil prices continue to fall due to a potential ceasefire in Gaza, with Brent crude trading around $85.00 and WTI crude hovering near $80.00.

• Reports suggest the US is preparing to put a UN resolution calling for an immediate and lasting ceasefire in Gaza to a vote in the Security Council on Friday.
• Oil prices faced pressure from a stronger dollar, which rallied on expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period, while other major economies begin cutting rates.
• Data from the Energy Information Administration revealed that US gasoline product supplied, a proxy for demand, fell below 9 million barrels for the first time in three weeks, indicating weak consumption.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2169.14

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2170.54, with a target price of 2175.60 and 2182.54. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2162.31, with a price target of 2155.86 and then 2148.51.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.40 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $80.61, targeting a price of $81.08, then 81.64. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $79.93, targeting a price of $79.41, then 78.82. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08239

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08167, targeting a price of 1.08007, then 1.07794. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08394, targeting a price of 1.08579, then 1.08803.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26025

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25944, targeting the price of 1.25747, then 1.25523. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.26280, targeting the price of 1.26566, then 1.26787.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18546

The first scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18586, targeting the price of 18625 then 18671. The alternative scenario: selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18527, targeting the price of 18485 then 18441.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States of America

• Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
• Time: 16:00

From Canada

• Government Budget (Annual) (January)
• Time: 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

Global Easing Cycle Begins, But Not From Who You Expected

• The global easing cycle for major currencies has begun, surprisingly initiated by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
• The SNB surprised markets by cutting its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%.

Fed Leaning Towards Rate Cuts, But With Caution

• The US Federal Reserve seems ready to cut interest rates in June after initially sticking to a plan of three cuts throughout 2024.
• While some members favored a more hawkish approach with additional rate hikes in 2025, 2026, and the long term, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, downplaying concerns about January and February inflation reports.
• The Bank of England also signaled that even after rate cuts, policy would remain restrictive. As a result, the market shifted its expectations towards an earlier rate cut at the June meeting.

Gold Prices Dip on Dollar Strength, But Weekly Gains Hold

• Gold prices fell on Friday due to a stronger dollar. However, they are still on track for their fourth weekly gain in five weeks, as the Fed’s decision to maintain its rate cut expectations for 2024 boosted the appeal of gold.

Oil Prices Decline on Potential Gaza Ceasefire

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures dropped to around $80.5 per barrel on Friday, declining for the third consecutive session. The possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, which could ease supply concerns, weighed on oil prices.