Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar falls on uncertainty over Trump tariffs

The dollar index held steady around 108.1 on Wednesday, holding onto its recent decline amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

Gold rises to 11-week high on Trump policy concerns, weak dollar

Trump vows to impose trade tariffs on the European Union

Gold hits highest level since November 2024

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady next week.

ANZ Bank expects demand for gold investment to rise

“There is still some uncertainty about when Trump wants to implement his policies on major US trading partners, which is causing a lot of uncertainty in the direction of the dollar, which is the basic short-term catalyst driving the bullish tone in gold,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.

-The weakness of the dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Gold is considered a safe investment during economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on the European Union, and said his administration is discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting February 1.

Gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation could diminish if Trump’s policies, seen as inflationary, lead the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates weaken the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The Federal Reserve is set to meet next week with the focus on the Trump administration’s new policies and a bond market that has sent borrowing costs soaring even as the U.S. central bank cuts interest rates. The bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at the meeting.

“Macroeconomic and trade uncertainty and the potential for a deteriorating financial situation are supporting safe-haven demand,” ANZ said in a note. “Central bank buying is setting a strong demand base, but we expect investment demand to pick up, offsetting losses in physical demand.”

Oil steady as investors watch Trump policies, Brent trades at $78.00, WTI at $75.00

U.S. crude oil futures fell on Tuesday after Trump announced a sweeping plan to boost oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed up permitting, rolling back environmental protections and withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate accord.

“Market participants are trying to digest the mixed signals that a Trump 2.0 victory carries for the trajectory of oil prices,” said IG market strategist Yip Junrong.

“The focus in the near term will be on whether his goal of filling the US strategic reserves will be achieved,” Yip said, adding that attention is focused on his upcoming tariff policies.

Trump’s latest energy policy is unlikely to spur investment in the near term or change U.S. production growth, but it could mitigate potential erosion of demand for refined products, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.

Analysts also questioned whether Trump’s promise to refill the strategic reserve would lead to any changes in oil demand as the Biden administration was already buying oil for emergency stockpiles.

Investors also remained cautious amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policy. He said he was considering imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1, rather than on his first day in office as he had previously promised.

The US president also added that his administration will “most likely” stop buying oil from Venezuela, which is among the country’s largest oil suppliers.

-Bitcoin price started rising again above the $104,000 area. Bitcoin price is holding above $105,000 and could target an all-time high.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2751.80

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2761.39, targeting 2754.96 and 2768.52

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2743.58. Targeting 2737.13 and then 2729.30

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $75.22 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $75.00 level, targeting $74.48 and then $73.89.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $75.68, targeting $76.14 and then $76.71

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.04136

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.04212, targeting 1.04397 and then 1.04621.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.03985, targeting 1.03825 and then 1.03612.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.23187

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.23148, targeting the price of 1.22832 and then 1.22610

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.23373, targeting 1.23614 and then 1.23900.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21865

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 21927, targeting 22030 then 22148

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 21770 with a target price of 21645 then 21538

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There is no important news today.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 108.1 on Wednesday, holding onto its recent decline amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

Trump signaled Tuesday that he was considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, which would take effect on Feb. 1, just a day after he threatened Mexico and Canada with tariffs of about 25%.

But none of these threats have been turned into policy yet, fueling hopes that the administration will take a more cautious approach to tariffs, which could help mitigate inflation risks.

The dollar has been on an upward trajectory since October, driven by concerns that Trump’s “America First” policies and pro-growth stance could lead to higher inflation, which could prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing further interest rate cuts.

However, markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by July, with another cut possible later in the year.

Gold prices hit their highest level in more than 11 weeks on Wednesday, not far from an all-time high touched last year, supported by safe-haven demand stemming from uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and a weaker dollar.

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as markets assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency on his first day in office and the impact it will have on supply.