Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index was stable around 102.4 on Thursday, staying in a sideways trading range as investors kept evaluating the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, while steep drops in stocks gave it some support.
• Gold prices bounced back as U.S. yields fell and demand for the dollar rose.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit five-month lows.
• U.S. existing home sales rose unexpectedly in November.
• U.S. core personal consumption expenditures data coming out on Friday.
• Oil poised to end winning streak on U.S. inventory data, Brent crude trading at $79.00 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $74.00 a barrel.
• Nikkei Japan plunges in line with Wall Street; Toyota falters.
• U.S. court bans former President Donald Trump from primary elections under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which bars “insurgents” from holding office in the state.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 300 points in Wednesday trading, heading for first fall in 10 days, with profit-taking, especially after FedEx shares, which are seen as a gauge of the economy, tanked following poor results.
• Bitcoin price is climbing higher and recently broke the resistance level of $43,500. BTC is still in a strong uptrend and could speed up to move above $45,000.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,036.25 

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,039.65, targeting a price of $2,044.70 and then $2,051.65.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,031.41, targeting a price of $2,024.97 and then $2,017.61.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $74.13 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $74.36, targeting a price of $74.83 and then $75.39.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $73.68, targeting a price of $73.16 and then $72.57.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09469

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09391, targeting a price of $1.09232 and then $1.09019.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09619, targeting a price of $1.09803 and then $1.10028.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26351

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26242, targeting a price of $1.26044 and then $1.25820.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.26578, targeting a price of $1.26864 and then $1.27086.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,847

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,806, targeting a price of $16,764 and then $16,720.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,865, targeting a price of $16,904 and then $16,950.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• U.S. GDP (Q3) at 16:30.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 16:30.
• U.S. Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (December) at 16:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 102.4 on Thursday, remaining in a sideways trading range as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
• Investors also avoided making big bets ahead of final third-quarter GDP numbers on Thursday and the core personal consumption expenditures index for November on Friday.
• The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, while the annual rate is expected to slow to its lowest level since 2021 at 3.3%.
• Meanwhile, the dollar remained close to its weakest levels since August, as recent pushback from Federal Reserve officials did little to change expectations that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates next year.
• Markets still see a roughly 70% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in March.
• Gold prices rose on Thursday, supported by weakness in the dollar and falling Treasury yields, as traders looked to U.S. economic data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
• Oil prices fell on Thursday, heading for a three-day winning streak, as concerns about falling demand following a surprise increase in U.S. crude stockpiles outweighed concerns about global trade disruptions due to tensions in the Middle East.